L’École des cotes

Jiri Lehecka v Alexander Zverev

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-06 19:53 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jiri Lehecka (Local)

Prévision 28.85%3.47cote équitable
EV +6.76%
Avantage +1.83%
Kelly +2.50%
Croissance +0.169%

avec la cote maximale 3.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.70%28.88%28.96%31.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.853.293.303.7035.09%30.39%30.30%27.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alexander Zverev (Visiteur)

Prévision 71.15%1.41cote équitable
EV -1.82%
Avantage -1.32%
Kelly -4.79%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.38

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
68.24%71.12%71.04%74.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.271.321.321.3878.74%75.70%75.76%72.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
SportsBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +6.76%E +1.83%K +2.50%G +0.169%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -8.93%E -6.98%K -31.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 19:49
FanDuel3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.88%E +1.08%K +1.49%G +0.058%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 19:40
Paddy Power3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +3.88%E +1.08%K +1.49%G +0.058%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 19:40
Unibet (FR)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV +2.43%E +0.685%K +0.954%G +0.023%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-06 19:40
Hard Rock Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.991%E +0.283%K +0.396%G +0.004%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.80%E -5.19%K -21.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-06 19:40
Marathon Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.991%E +0.283%K +0.396%G +0.004%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:29
Betway3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.991%E +0.283%K +0.396%G +0.004%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:49
BoyleSports3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.991%E +0.283%K +0.396%G +0.004%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
Pinnacle3.47I 28.82%NM 28.16%EV +0.125%E +0.036%K +0.051%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.84%EV -3.24%E -2.38%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 19:40
Codere (IT)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.452%E -0.131%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-06 19:40
ReBet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.452%E -0.131%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-06 19:40
BetRivers3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -0.452%E -0.131%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 19:40
ATG (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.452%E -0.131%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 19:45
NetBet (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -0.452%E -0.131%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-06 19:40
GTbets3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -1.32%E -0.385%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-06 19:49
theScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.89%E -0.557%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 19:40
MyBookie.ag3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.89%E -0.557%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.89%E -0.557%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-06 19:40
Caesars3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -1.89%E -0.557%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 19:39
BetAnything3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.34%E -0.996%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-06 19:40
Neds3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.34%E -0.996%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.34%E -0.996%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 19:40
BetUS3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -3.34%E -0.996%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -6.80%E -5.19%K -21.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-06 19:40
Virgin Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -3.34%E -0.996%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 19:45
TABtouch3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -3.34%E -0.996%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 19:45
PlayUp3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:45
Unibet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
Unibet (NL)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
Casumo3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
Unibet (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:40
betPARX3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
Svenska Spel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.78%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 19:50
NordicBet3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV -5.36%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.77%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-06 19:49
Bovada3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 19:39
PointsBet (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 19:44
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 19:50
betfred_uk3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 19:40
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 19:50
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 19:50
Dabble (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-06 19:49
Grosvenor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-06 19:50
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -6.22%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -9.65%E -7.59%K -35.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-06 19:45
Unibet (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 19:50
TAB3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.66%E -3.48%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 19:50
Everygame3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 19:39
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 19:50
Coral3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 19:50
LiveScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 19:50
Bally Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 19:50
PMU (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 19:50
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 19:31
Fliff3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.67%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -8.22%E -6.37%K -28.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-06 19:50
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -9.11%E -2.89%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-06 19:50
Betsson3.13I 31.95%NM 29.98%EV -9.69%E -3.09%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.02%EV -4.66%E -3.48%K -13.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 19:50
DraftKings3.11I 32.15%NM 30.73%EV -10.26%E -3.30%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.27%EV -1.82%E -1.32%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 19:50
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.55%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.24%E -2.38%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-06 19:50
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.55%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-06 19:50
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.55%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.38%E -4.04%K -16.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 19:50
Tipico (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -13.44%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 19:50
Betclic (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.44%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 19:50
Winamax (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -14.88%E -5.04%K -7.63%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.09%E -4.61%K -19.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-06 19:50
Betr (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -16.32%E -5.63%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -3.95%E -2.93%K -11.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-06 19:45
Winamax (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%EV -17.76%E -6.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.67%EV -7.51%E -5.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-06 19:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-07-06 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-07-06 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-07-06 19:40
Novig3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25%1.0%2026-07-06 19:50
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%2.6%2026-07-06 19:50
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%2.7%2026-07-06 19:50
ProphetX3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%3.7%2026-07-06 19:50