The School of OddsJannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic
Head to Head
Option 1: Jannik Sinner (Local)
Odds
1.1785.47%Min
1.2281.89%Mean
1.2281.97%Median
1.2679.37%Max
Consensus probabilities
75.16%1.331Min
79.72%1.254Max
77.17%1.296Mean
77.28%1.294Median
77.29%1.294IQM
77.37%1.292Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.26 under the IQM model: 77.29%
EV -2.61%Edge -2.07%Kelly -10.05%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Odds
3.6027.78%Min
4.1723.96%Mean
4.2023.81%Median
4.6521.51%Max
Consensus probabilities
20.28%4.932Min
24.84%4.025Max
22.83%4.380Mean
22.72%4.402Median
22.71%4.404IQM
22.63%4.419Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.65 under the IQM model: 22.71%
EV +5.60%Edge +1.20%Kelly +1.53%Growth +0.086%
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Jannik Sinner (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1.20I 83.33% NM 79.49%EV -7.25% E -6.04% K -36.25% G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51% NM 20.51%EV +5.60% E +1.20% K +1.53% G +0.086% | 4.8% | 2026-07-08 00:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.17I 85.47% NM 79.72%EV -9.57% E -8.18% K -56.29% G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.28%EV +4.46% E +0.970% K +1.24% G +0.055% | 7.2% | 2026-07-08 00:55 |
| Bovada | 1.22I 81.97% NM 78.67%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.33%EV +2.19% E +0.487% K +0.626% G +0.014% | 4.2% | 2026-07-08 00:10 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.25% E -6.04% K -36.25% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +2.19% E +0.487% K +0.626% G +0.014% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 00:29 |
| Paddy Power | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.25% E -6.04% K -36.25% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +2.19% E +0.487% K +0.626% G +0.014% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 00:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.25% E -6.04% K -36.25% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +2.19% E +0.487% K +0.626% G +0.014% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 01:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24I 80.65% NM 78.28%EV -4.16% E -3.35% K -17.33% G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37% NM 21.72%EV +1.51% E +0.338% K +0.435% G +0.007% | 3.0% | 2026-07-08 00:30 |
| DraftKings | 1.22I 81.97% NM 78.45%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52% NM 21.55%EV +0.827% E +0.186% K +0.241% G +0.002% | 4.5% | 2026-07-08 00:09 |
| 1xBet | 1.26I 79.37% NM 77.66%EV -2.61% E -2.07% K -10.05% G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83% NM 22.34%EV -0.535% E -0.122% K -0.158% G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| GTbets | 1.26I 79.37% NM 77.54%EV -2.61% E -2.07% K -10.05% G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99% NM 22.46%EV -1.22% E -0.280% K -0.363% G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-08 00:45 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.24I 80.65% NM 77.62%EV -4.16% E -3.35% K -17.33% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.38%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Casumo | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| BetRivers | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Unibet | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Grosvenor | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| TABtouch | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| betPARX | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Bally Bet | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -2.35% E -0.547% K -0.713% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.24I 80.65% NM 77.41%EV -4.16% E -3.35% K -17.33% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.59%EV -3.49% E -0.821% K -1.07% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Betway | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.70%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.30%EV -3.49% E -0.821% K -1.07% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 00:49 |
| BetMGM | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.70%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.30%EV -3.49% E -0.821% K -1.07% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| TAB | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 00:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Coral | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 00:10 |
| 888sport | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-07 23:25 |
| William Hill | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-07 23:25 |
| Everygame | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Fanatics | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.21I 82.64% NM 77.63%EV -6.48% E -5.35% K -30.85% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.37%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.21I 82.64% NM 77.63%EV -6.48% E -5.35% K -30.85% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.37%EV -4.62% E -1.10% K -1.44% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.28%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10% NM 22.72%EV -5.76% E -1.39% K -1.83% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-08 01:05 |
| Fliff | 1.21I 82.64% NM 77.43%EV -6.48% E -5.35% K -30.85% G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10% NM 22.57%EV -5.76% E -1.39% K -1.83% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-08 00:45 |
| NordicBet | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.15%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27% NM 22.85%EV -6.44% E -1.56% K -2.06% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Betsson | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.15%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27% NM 22.85%EV -6.44% E -1.56% K -2.06% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Neds | 1.24I 80.65% NM 76.78%EV -4.16% E -3.35% K -17.33% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.22%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.24I 80.65% NM 76.78%EV -4.16% E -3.35% K -17.33% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.22%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 76.92%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.08%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| theScore Bet | 1.23I 81.30% NM 76.92%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.08%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.07%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.93%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.07%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.93%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.19I 84.03% NM 77.50%EV -8.02% E -6.74% K -42.23% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.50%EV -6.89% E -1.68% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 76.70%EV -4.93% E -4.01% K -21.44% G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69% NM 23.30%EV -8.03% E -1.98% K -2.63% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-08 01:09 |
| betfred_uk | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -9.16% E -2.29% K -3.05% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| Caesars | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -9.16% E -2.29% K -3.05% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-08 00:32 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.21I 82.64% NM 76.78%EV -6.48% E -5.35% K -30.85% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.22%EV -9.16% E -2.29% K -3.05% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| LeoVegas | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.40%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.60%EV -10.30% E -2.61% K -3.49% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-08 01:05 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.21I 82.64% NM 76.32%EV -6.48% E -5.35% K -30.85% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 23.68%EV -11.44% E -2.93% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| PlayUp | 1.25I 80.00% NM 75.49%EV -3.39% E -2.71% K -13.54% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 24.51%EV -12.57% E -3.27% K -4.41% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-08 00:49 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.24I 80.65% NM 75.64%EV -4.16% E -3.35% K -17.33% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 24.36%EV -12.57% E -3.27% K -4.41% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-08 00:50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97% NM 75.45%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.55%EV -14.84% E -3.96% K -5.40% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-07 22:39 |
| Bet Victor | 1.22I 81.97% NM 75.45%EV -5.70% E -4.68% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.55%EV -14.84% E -3.96% K -5.40% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.20I 83.33% NM 75.76%EV -7.25% E -6.04% K -36.25% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -14.84% E -3.96% K -5.40% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-08 00:03 |
| ReBet | 1.20I 83.33% NM 75.76%EV -7.25% E -6.04% K -36.25% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -14.84% E -3.96% K -5.40% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 75.41%EV -8.02% E -6.74% K -42.23% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 24.59%EV -17.11% E -4.69% K -6.46% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-08 00:04 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 75.16%EV -8.02% E -6.74% K -42.23% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 24.84%EV -18.25% E -5.07% K -7.02% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-08 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Jannik Sinner (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 00:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 00:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 00:35 |
| Novig | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.72% | 4.44I 22.52% NM 21.28% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 01:00 |
| ProphetX | 1.24I 80.65% NM 75.64% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 24.36% | 6.6% | 2026-07-08 00:35 |
| Matchbook | 1.20I 83.33% NM 76.92% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-07-07 23:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.19I 84.03% NM 75.16% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 24.84% | 11.8% | 2026-07-08 00:15 |