L’École des cotes

Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-10 15:20 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jannik Sinner (Local)

Prévision 79.56%1.26cote équitable
EV -2.14%
Avantage -1.74%
Kelly -9.32%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
76.63%79.49%79.53%82.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.141.201.201.2387.72%83.50%83.33%81.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Novak Djokovic (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.44%4.89cote équitable
EV +12.43%
Avantage +2.26%
Kelly +2.76%
Croissance +0.344%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.17%20.51%20.47%23.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.644.515.5025.00%21.56%22.17%18.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Sky Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -9.30%E -8.16%K -66.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +12.43%E +2.26%K +2.76%G +0.344%5.9%2026-07-10 15:15
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -9.30%E -8.16%K -66.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +12.43%E +2.26%K +2.76%G +0.344%5.9%2026-07-10 15:15
FanDuel1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +6.30%E +1.21%K +1.50%G +0.095%4.7%2026-07-10 15:15
Pinnacle1.21I 82.64%NM 80.88%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 19.12%EV +4.67%E +0.911%K +1.13%G +0.053%2.2%2026-07-10 15:15
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV +4.26%E +0.835%K +1.04%G +0.044%4.4%2026-07-10 15:15
theScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%3.3%2026-07-10 15:14
BoyleSports1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%4.7%2026-07-10 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%5.5%2026-07-10 15:15
888sport1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%5.5%2026-07-10 15:15
William Hill1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%5.5%2026-07-10 15:15
888sport (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%5.5%2026-07-10 15:15
Mr Green (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.21%E +0.442%K +0.553%G +0.012%5.5%2026-07-10 15:15
Bovada1.21I 82.64%NM 80.20%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.80%EV +0.168%E +0.034%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-10 15:13
Coolbet1.21I 82.64%NM 80.20%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.80%EV +0.168%E +0.034%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-10 15:14
Winamax (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV +0.168%E +0.034%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-10 15:15
DraftKings1.19I 84.03%NM 80.17%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 15:15
Winamax (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -1.88%E -0.391%K -0.494%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.90%E -0.610%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 15:15
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -2.90%E -0.610%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:14
LeoVegas1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -2.90%E -0.610%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:15
Codere (IT)1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -3.92%E -0.834%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 15:15
Unibet (UK)1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -3.92%E -0.834%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 15:15
ReBet1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -3.92%E -0.834%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 15:15
Betclic (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.92%E -0.834%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 15:14
NetBet (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.92%E -5.91%K -40.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -3.92%E -0.834%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 15:15
BetMGM1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 15:15
Unibet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 15:14
MyBookie.ag1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 15:13
BetAnything1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 15:15
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -5.97%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:15
GTbets1.19I 84.03%NM 79.41%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.59%EV -6.17%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:14
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.12%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.88%EV -7.80%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 15:15
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 79.12%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.88%EV -7.80%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 15:14
Casumo1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:14
BetRivers1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:13
LeoVegas (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
Unibet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:14
Grosvenor1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
Unibet (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
Unibet (NL)1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
TABtouch1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
betPARX1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
Svenska Spel1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:14
Bally Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
Hard Rock Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:15
ATG (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 15:14
Fanatics1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 15:14
Betway1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:14
TAB1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:13
PointsBet (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 15:15
Dabble (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:14
betfred_uk1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:15
Coral1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.12%E -5.19%K -34.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.01%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:14
Marathon Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -2.14%E -1.74%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -10.05%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-10 15:14
Neds1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.05%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 15:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.05%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 15:15
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -3.74%E -3.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -11.08%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:14
LiveScore Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -11.08%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:15
Fliff1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.33%E -4.48%K -28.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -11.08%E -2.55%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:14
1xBet1.23I 81.30%NM 77.51%EV -2.14%E -1.74%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.49%EV -13.32%E -3.14%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 15:14
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -14.14%E -3.37%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:14
Caesars1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -14.14%E -3.37%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 15:14
PMU (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.94%E -2.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 15:14
Bet Victor1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -4.53%E -3.78%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -18.23%E -4.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 15:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%0.5%2026-07-10 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%0.5%2026-07-10 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%0.5%2026-07-10 15:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%0.5%2026-07-10 15:15
Novig1.23I 81.30%NM 80.66%5.13I 19.49%NM 19.34%0.8%2026-07-10 15:15
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%0.8%2026-07-10 15:15
ProphetX1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%0.8%2026-07-10 15:15