Language:English
Alex Molcan v Daniel Altmaier
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Molcan (Local)
Prediction 94.91%1.05fair odd
EV +34.77%
Edge +24.49%
Kelly +82.79%
Growth +28.79%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.74%94.69%95.00%98.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.041.011.42100.00%96.43%99.01%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Altmaier (Visit)
Prediction 5.09%19.65fair odd
EV +337.72%
Edge +3.93%
Kelly +3.97%
Growth +13.42%
assuming max odds 86.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.15%5.31%5.00%33.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.8519.5315.0086.0035.09%5.12%6.67%1.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Molcan (Local): 94.91%; Daniel Altmaier (Visit): 5.09%. For Daniel Altmaier (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 19.65. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 86.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +337.72%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV +34.77%E +24.49%K +82.79%G +28.79% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -85.49%E -30.00%K -46.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 11:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV +8.20%E +7.19%K +58.55%G +4.80% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -76.59%E -16.65%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +2.50%E +2.32%K +31.29%G +0.783% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -61.83%E -8.24%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +2.50%E +2.32%K +31.29%G +0.783% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -61.83%E -8.24%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +2.50%E +2.32%K +31.29%G +0.783% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -61.83%E -8.24%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV +2.50%E +2.32%K +31.29%G +0.783% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -61.83%E -8.24%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV +2.50%E +2.32%K +31.29%G +0.783% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -64.37%E -9.20%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV +1.55%E +1.45%K +22.20%G +0.345% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -54.19%E -6.02%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV +1.55%E +1.45%K +22.20%G +0.345% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -56.74%E -6.67%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV +0.605%E +0.571%K +10.08%G +0.061% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -61.83%E -8.24%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 12:11 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -0.344%E -0.328%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -49.10%E -4.91%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -0.344%E -0.328%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -59.28%E -7.41%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 12:11 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -0.344%E -0.328%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -59.28%E -7.41%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-01 12:11 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.90%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.34%G +0.000% | 13.60I 7.35%NM 7.10%EV -30.78%E -2.26%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.34%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -54.19%E -6.02%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-01 12:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.81%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.34%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.19%EV -58.01%E -7.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-01 12:11 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -2.24%E -2.18%K -74.75%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -23.65%E -1.58%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-01 12:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.20%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.80%EV +78.14%E +2.23%K +2.30%G +1.80% | 1.9% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +47.60%E +1.64%K +1.70%G +0.809% | 2.5% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.52%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.48%EV +42.51%E +1.52%K +1.57%G +0.669% | 2.6% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +32.34%E +1.24%K +1.29%G +0.418% | 2.9% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +32.34%E +1.24%K +1.29%G +0.418% | 2.9% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +27.25%E +1.09%K +1.14%G +0.309% | 3.0% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +6.89%E +0.328%K +0.344%G +0.024% | 3.8% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +1.80%E +0.090%K +0.095%G +0.002% | 4.0% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -8.38%E -0.466%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 12:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -13.47%E -0.793%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -13.47%E -0.793%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -23.65%E -1.58%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 12:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -23.65%E -1.58%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.74%E -2.05%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -33.83%E -2.60%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 12:13 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -33.83%E -2.60%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 12:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -4.14%E -4.10%K -414.07%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -38.92%E -3.24%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-01 12:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.85%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 86.00I 1.16%NM 1.15%EV +337.72%E +3.93%K +3.97%G +13.42% | 1.2% | 2026-07-01 12:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +241.02%E +3.60%K +3.65%G +8.80% | 1.5% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +108.68%E +2.65%K +2.72%G +2.95% | 2.4% | 2026-07-01 12:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +108.68%E +2.65%K +2.72%G +2.95% | 2.4% | 2026-07-01 12:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.60%E +1.64%K +1.70%G +0.809% | 3.4% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.55%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.45%EV +42.51%E +1.52%K +1.57%G +0.669% | 3.6% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.89%E +0.328%K +0.344%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.89%E +0.328%K +0.344%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.89%E +0.328%K +0.344%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -5.09%E -5.09%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -3.29%E -0.173%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 12:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.39% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61% | 0.7% | 2026-07-01 12:18 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 12:18 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91% | 1.0% | 2026-07-01 12:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.27% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.73% | 1.8% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.30% | 35.97I 2.78%NM 2.70% | 2.8% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.81% | 30.30I 3.30%NM 3.19% | 3.3% | 2026-07-01 12:17 |