Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Flavio Cobolli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 75.14%1.33fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -10.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.38%75.10%74.73%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.251.2983.33%79.58%79.68%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Flavio Cobolli (Visit)
Prediction 24.86%4.02fair odd
EV +11.87%
Edge +2.64%
Kelly +3.39%
Growth +0.403%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%24.90%25.27%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.783.754.5030.77%26.47%26.67%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 75.14%; Flavio Cobolli (Visit): 24.86%. For Flavio Cobolli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -9.83%E -8.19%K -49.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +11.87%E +2.64%K +3.39%G +0.403% | 5.6% | 2026-07-06 12:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.08%EV -4.57%E -3.60%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.92%EV +6.15%E +1.44%K +1.88%G +0.116% | 2.2% | 2026-07-06 12:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV +4.41%E +1.05%K +1.38%G +0.061% | 3.8% | 2026-07-06 11:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +4.41%E +1.05%K +1.38%G +0.061% | 5.8% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV +1.93%E +0.470%K +0.621%G +0.012% | 3.8% | 2026-07-06 11:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV +1.93%E +0.470%K +0.621%G +0.012% | 3.8% | 2026-07-06 11:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.83%E -5.50%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.93%E +0.470%K +0.621%G +0.012% | 5.0% | 2026-07-06 12:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-06 12:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-06 09:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-06 07:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-06 11:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 12:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.561%E -0.140%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-05 08:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -7.58%E -6.16%K -32.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -1.80%E -0.457%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-06 12:04 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.05%E -0.781%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-06 12:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.05%E -0.781%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.53%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%EV -3.30%E -0.847%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 02:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.29%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 12:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -4.57%E -3.60%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -5.04%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-06 11:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.58%E -6.16%K -32.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.51%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.49%EV -6.28%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-06 12:03 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.82%E -2.98%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-06 11:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 10:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 10:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 11:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 12:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 11:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 12:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.83%E -5.50%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -9.08%E -7.50%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -4.57%E -3.60%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -7.02%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-06 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.57%E -3.60%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.32%E -4.22%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.80%EV -6.83%E -5.50%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.20%EV -8.52%E -2.31%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-06 11:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 25.83%EV -10.75%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -3.82%E -2.98%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -11.75%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -3.82%E -2.98%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -11.75%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.82%E -2.98%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.82%E -2.98%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -4.57%E -3.60%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -6.83%E -5.50%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -6.07%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -14.23%E -4.13%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.39%EV -4.57%E -3.60%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 27.61%EV -17.22%E -5.17%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-06 12:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -6.83%E -5.50%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -19.21%E -5.91%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 0.1% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62% | 2.8% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38% | 3.9% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 12:10 |
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