Language:English
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Fabian Marozsan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local)
Prediction 65.94%1.52fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -5.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.90%65.94%65.95%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.431.4873.53%70.37%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fabian Marozsan (Visit)
Prediction 34.06%2.94fair odd
EV -0.556%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%34.06%34.05%35.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.792.9238.46%35.77%35.78%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Local): 65.94%; Fabian Marozsan (Visit): 34.06%. For Fabian Marozsan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.92, with an expected value of -0.556%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.40%E -1.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.40%E -1.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51%EV -3.06%E -2.08%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49%EV -0.556%E -0.191%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -3.72%E -2.55%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -5.66%E -2.05%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 11:57 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.72%E -2.55%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-01 11:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-01 11:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.31%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.69%EV -7.03%E -2.57%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -4.38%E -3.02%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -8.39%E -3.12%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-01 11:57 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-01 11:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-01 11:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.28%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 11:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 11:57 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 11:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 11:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 11:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.04%E -3.50%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -5.70%E -3.99%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -4.30%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.70%E -3.99%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 11:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.70%E -3.99%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 11:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.70%E -3.99%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.27%EV -6.36%E -4.48%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.73%EV -4.98%E -1.79%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.36%E -4.48%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.02%E -4.98%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -1.24%E -0.427%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 11:56 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -7.02%E -4.98%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 11:57 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -7.02%E -4.98%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -5.66%E -2.05%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 11:58 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.24%E -0.427%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.24%E -0.427%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.24%E -0.427%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.92%E -0.666%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 11:51 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -7.68%E -5.48%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -11.45%E -4.41%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -8.34%E -6.00%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.00%E -6.52%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.00%E -6.52%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.00%E -6.52%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.00%E -6.52%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.00%E -6.52%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.94%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 11:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.82% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.18% | 1.8% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64% | 2.5% | 2026-07-01 12:00 |