Language:English
Taylor Fritz v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Taylor Fritz (Local)
Prediction 67.79%1.48fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%67.73%67.82%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.31%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 32.21%3.10fair odd
EV -0.155%
Edge -0.050%
Kelly -0.074%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.27%32.18%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.883.1037.04%34.52%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Taylor Fritz (Local): 67.79%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 32.21%. For Alex Michelsen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.105. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.100, with an expected value of -0.155%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.38%E -1.65%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 04:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.76%E -0.579%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.02%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-31 17:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 19:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-31 15:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-31 15:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-31 19:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-30 12:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-31 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-31 18:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -13.04%E -4.83%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-31 18:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -1.12%E -0.365%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-31 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -1.12%E -0.365%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-31 18:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-31 17:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-31 19:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-31 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 19:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 19:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 19:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 19:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 19:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 16:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.56%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-31 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.56%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-31 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-31 15:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 17:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 19:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 17:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-31 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.45%E -4.67%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.155%E -0.050%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-31 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.45%E -4.67%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.76%E -0.579%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 16:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.45%E -4.67%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-31 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.13%E -5.20%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-31 19:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -7.13%E -5.20%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -5.95%E -2.04%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-31 19:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-31 16:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-31 19:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-31 19:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-31 16:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-31 16:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 0.2% | 2026-07-31 19:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 0.2% | 2026-07-31 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 0.2% | 2026-07-31 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 0.2% | 2026-07-31 19:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-07-31 19:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.49% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.51% | 1.4% | 2026-07-31 19:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72% | 1.7% | 2026-07-31 19:50 |
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