Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Taylor Fritz v Alex Michelsen

Início: 2026-07-31 20:00 UTC

Final: Taylor Fritz 2–1 Alex Michelsen

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Taylor Fritz (Local)

Previsão 67.79%1.48odd justa
EV -2.38%
Vantagem -1.65%
Kelly -5.41%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.44

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.53%67.73%67.82%69.20%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.31%71.43%69.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alex Michelsen (Visitante)

Previsão 32.21%3.10odd justa
EV -0.155%
Vantagem -0.050%
Kelly -0.074%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.80%32.27%32.18%34.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.702.902.883.1037.04%34.52%34.72%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Taylor Fritz (Local): 67.79%; Alex Michelsen (Visitante): 32.21%. Para Alex Michelsen (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.105. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.100, com valor esperado de -0.155%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.38%E -1.65%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 04:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.76%E -0.579%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-31 17:55
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.02%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-31 17:14
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:44
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:44
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:39
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 19:20
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:44
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:39
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-31 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-31 15:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-31 15:39
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-31 19:19
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-30 12:25
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:00
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.74%E -2.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -13.04%E -4.83%K -7.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-31 18:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -1.12%E -0.365%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-31 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -1.12%E -0.365%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-31 18:54
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 17:55
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 17:54
BetAnything🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 19:55
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-31 18:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 17:55
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 19:14
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 17:55
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 18:10
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 19:14
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 19:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 19:15
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 18:00
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-31 16:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-31 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.56%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-31 17:59
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.56%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-31 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.09%E -3.64%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 15:40
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 19:34
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.99%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -5.77%E -4.15%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -8.21%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-31 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.45%E -4.67%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.155%E -0.050%K -0.074%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-31 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.45%E -4.67%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.76%E -0.579%K -0.861%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 16:05
Fliff🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.45%E -4.67%K -16.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-31 18:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.13%E -5.20%K -19.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-31 19:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -7.13%E -5.20%K -19.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -5.95%E -2.04%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-31 19:55
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.38%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-31 16:00
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-31 19:20
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-31 19:19
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-31 16:04
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.74%K -21.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-31 16:04
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-07-31 19:35
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-07-31 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-07-31 19:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-07-31 19:35
ProphetX1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-07-31 19:45
Novig1.44I 69.44%NM 68.49%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.51%1.4%2026-07-31 19:50
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%1.7%2026-07-31 19:50