Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Kamil Majchrzak v Tommy Paul

Início: 2026-07-28 15:00 UTC

Final: Kamil Majchrzak 2–0 Tommy Paul

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Kamil Majchrzak (Local)

Previsão 23.96%4.17odd justa
EV +1.61%
Vantagem +0.379%
Kelly +0.496%
Crescimento +0.008%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.24

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.63%24.05%23.81%26.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.903.954.2428.57%25.65%25.32%23.58%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Previsão 76.04%1.32odd justa
EV -1.91%
Vantagem -1.48%
Kelly -6.60%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
73.07%75.95%76.19%77.37%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.201.251.251.2983.33%80.05%80.00%77.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Kamil Majchrzak (Local): 23.96%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 76.04%. Para Kamil Majchrzak (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.17. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.24, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.61%.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV +1.61%E +0.379%K +0.496%G +0.008%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-28 14:29
LowVig.ag🎯4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV +1.61%E +0.379%K +0.496%G +0.008%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-28 14:30
Pinnacle🎯4.21I 23.75%NM 23.03%EV +0.887%E +0.211%K +0.276%G +0.002%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.97%EV -4.19%E -3.33%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-28 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -1.75%E -0.427%K -0.564%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.19%E -3.33%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-28 06:59
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.75%E -0.427%K -0.564%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:14
Bet Right🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -1.75%E -0.427%K -0.564%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -8.76%E -7.30%K -43.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-28 11:19
BetAnything🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV -2.95%E -0.728%K -0.966%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-28 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV -2.95%E -0.728%K -0.966%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-28 14:48
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:10
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:34
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 07:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 06:59
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:24
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:19
ReBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:24
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 14:04
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-28 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-28 06:57
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.15%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.24%E -5.93%K -32.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 14:54
1xBet🎯3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -4.86%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.76%EV -3.43%E -2.70%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-28 14:54
Bally Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
ATG (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
betPARX🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Grosvenor🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
TABtouch🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Svenska Spel🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
BetRivers🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 06:59
Betr (AU)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 14:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 14:04
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 14:10
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 14:09
NetBet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.34%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -7.24%E -5.93%K -32.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-28 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -7.74%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-28 06:59
LiveScore Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -7.74%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-28 06:59
Fliff🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -7.74%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-28 14:34
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.94%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.43%E -2.70%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-28 14:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.94%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 07:34
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.94%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 01:45
Caesars🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.94%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 03:20
TAB🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.94%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 08:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.94%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.48%E -5.26%K -28.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-28 06:59
Fanatics🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.14%E -2.70%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.43%E -2.70%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 14:54
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.14%E -2.70%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 14:09
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.14%E -2.70%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 01:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.14%E -2.70%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 01:45
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -13.73%E -3.81%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.67%E -2.09%K -9.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-28 05:25
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.73%E -3.81%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 22:49
betano_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.73%E -3.81%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-28 14:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.13%E -4.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.91%E -1.48%K -6.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-28 14:09
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -16.13%E -4.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.67%E -2.09%K -9.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -16.13%E -4.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.67%E -2.09%K -9.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 01:45
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.13%E -4.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-28 14:09
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.13%E -4.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-28 14:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Novig4.76I 21.01%NM 20.93%1.26I 79.37%NM 79.07%0.4%2026-07-28 14:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-07-28 14:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-07-28 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-07-28 14:50
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%0.6%2026-07-28 14:50
Smarkets4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%1.6%2026-07-28 14:45
ProphetX4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26%2.2%2026-07-28 14:54