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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Jacob Fearnley

Inicio: 2026-09-02 17:16 UTC

Final: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 3–1 Jacob Fearnley

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local)

Predicción 56.52%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.09%
Ventaja -0.621%
Kelly -1.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.55%56.53%56.57%58.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.681.671.7563.69%59.55%59.88%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jacob Fearnley (Visitante)

Predicción 43.48%2.30momio equitativo
EV +0.869%
Ventaja +0.374%
Kelly +0.658%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.10%43.47%43.43%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.082.182.172.3248.08%45.87%46.19%43.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Local): 56.52%; Jacob Fearnley (Visitante): 43.48%. Para Jacob Fearnley (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.30. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.32, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.869%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -5.04%E -3.00%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV +0.869%E +0.374%K +0.658%G +0.006%2.6%2026-09-02 17:05
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.43%E -5.21%K -13.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 17:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.43%E -5.21%K -13.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 17:00
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.43%E -5.21%K -13.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 17:00
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -0.436%E -0.190%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-02 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -0.436%E -0.190%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-02 17:05
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 16:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -6.17%E -3.72%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -6.17%E -3.72%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 17:10
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 17:05
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.87%E -4.83%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 17:15
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -11.26%E -7.17%K -19.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -11.26%E -7.17%K -19.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.17%E -0.967%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 17:00
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -2.61%E -1.17%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 17:14
DraftKings🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.30%E -4.45%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.04%E -1.37%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 17:15
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.48%E -1.57%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 16:45
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:40
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:09
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 16:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:35
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:35
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.17%E -3.72%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 17:00
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 17:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 17:10
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.22%E -2.39%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 17:00
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.22%E -1.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 08:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.78%E -1.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.04%E -3.00%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 17:15
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 16:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 08:34
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 17:00
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -1.09%E -0.621%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -6.96%E -3.25%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -4.48%E -2.65%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -7.39%E -3.47%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 17:00
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -1.65%E -0.949%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-02 17:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.22%E -1.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 08:34
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 07:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.09%EV -2.78%E -1.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.91%EV -8.26%E -3.92%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 14:40
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.09%E -0.621%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 17:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 13:10
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.35%E -1.96%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 13:38
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.91%E -2.30%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:10
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.91%E -2.30%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -5.04%E -3.00%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -9.57%E -4.60%K -8.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 13:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-09-02 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-09-02 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-02 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-02 17:10
ProphetX◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-09-02 17:10
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-09-02 16:50
Novig◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%2.1%2026-09-02 17:10
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%2.3%2026-09-02 17:15