Idioma:Español
Thiago Agustin Tirante v Adrian Mannarino
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Predicción 70.10%1.43momio equitativo
EV -1.87%
Ventaja -1.33%
Kelly -4.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.44%70.12%70.02%72.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.351.351.4076.92%73.95%74.07%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Adrian Mannarino (Visitante)
Predicción 29.90%3.34momio equitativo
EV +4.07%
Ventaja +1.17%
Kelly +1.64%
Crecimiento +0.067%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.48
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.66%29.88%29.98%32.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.193.203.4834.48%31.36%31.25%28.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 70.10%; Adrian Mannarino (Visitante): 29.90%. Para Adrian Mannarino (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.34. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.48, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.07%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.75%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.25%EV +4.07%E +1.17%K +1.64%G +0.067% | 1.7% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +1.68%E +0.493%K +0.698%G +0.012% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.88%E -6.83%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +1.68%E +0.493%K +0.698%G +0.012% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.70%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.30%EV +0.779%E +0.231%K +0.329%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 20:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +0.181%E +0.054%K +0.077%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 20:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV +0.181%E +0.054%K +0.077%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.31%E -0.398%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 20:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.84%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16%EV -1.91%E -0.583%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.47%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.53%EV -2.21%E -0.676%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-30 01:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.47%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.53%EV -2.21%E -0.676%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-30 01:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.27%E -2.37%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-30 19:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-29 08:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 20:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.81%E -0.864%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 20:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -3.71%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-30 20:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -3.71%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 19:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 02:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -5.50%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 19:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -1.87%E -1.33%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-30 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -3.97%E -2.90%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 19:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 19:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.80%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.73%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -7.00%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 19:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.73%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -7.00%E -2.25%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 19:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 06:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 06:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 06:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 06:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 17:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 15:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.30%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.27%E -2.37%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.27%E -2.37%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -8.79%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 20:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 19:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -1.87%E -1.33%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 20:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.07% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.93% | 2.0% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 20:15 |