Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Taylor Fritz v Mattia Bellucci

Início: 2026-09-03 18:05 UTC

Final: Taylor Fritz 3–0 Mattia Bellucci

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

65 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Taylor Fritz (Local)

Previsão 85.56%1.17odd justa
EV -1.60%
Vantagem -1.39%
Kelly -10.69%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
82.83%85.63%85.30%87.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.071.111.101.1593.46%90.38%90.91%86.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mattia Bellucci (Visitante)

Previsão 14.44%6.93odd justa
EV +9.73%
Vantagem +1.28%
Kelly +1.47%
Crescimento +0.143%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.64%14.37%14.70%17.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.506.756.757.6018.18%14.82%14.81%13.16%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Taylor Fritz (Local): 85.56%; Mattia Bellucci (Visitante): 14.44%. Para Mattia Bellucci (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.93. 30 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.60, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.73%.

Odds das casas de apostas (65 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV +9.73%E +1.28%K +1.47%G +0.143%4.1%2026-09-02 11:26
BetOnline.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV +9.73%E +1.28%K +1.47%G +0.143%4.1%2026-09-02 11:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
Grosvenor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:29
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 17:30
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
Bally Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 17:30
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 17:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.29%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106%5.1%2026-09-03 10:30
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.96%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.70%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.04%EV +6.84%E +0.925%K +1.07%G +0.073%3.6%2026-09-03 18:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.16%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.84%EV +6.84%E +0.925%K +1.07%G +0.073%5.3%2026-09-03 18:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.96%EV -7.59%E -7.03%K -94.92%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV +3.96%E +0.549%K +0.638%G +0.025%6.5%2026-09-03 07:35
GTbets🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 86.09%EV -1.60%E -1.39%K -10.69%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.91%EV +2.80%E +0.393%K +0.458%G +0.013%1.0%2026-09-02 14:45
BetUS🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%5.2%2026-09-03 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%5.2%2026-09-03 07:10
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%5.2%2026-09-03 07:10
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.59%E -7.03%K -94.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%6.9%2026-09-03 18:00
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.59%E -7.03%K -94.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%6.9%2026-09-03 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.59%E -7.03%K -94.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%6.9%2026-09-03 18:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.59%E -7.03%K -94.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%6.9%2026-09-03 18:00
Caesars🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.59%E -7.03%K -94.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%6.9%2026-09-02 13:46
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -8.45%E -7.90%K -120.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +1.07%E +0.153%K +0.178%G +0.002%7.7%2026-09-02 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.89%EV -3.32%E -2.93%K -25.50%G +0.000%6.88I 14.53%NM 14.11%EV -0.664%E -0.097%K -0.113%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.66%EV -3.32%E -2.93%K -25.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.34%EV -2.54%E -0.376%K -0.442%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 17:10
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -2.54%E -0.376%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 07:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -2.54%E -0.376%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 07:10
BetMGM🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -2.54%E -0.376%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 07:10
Fliff🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.92%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.86%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.08%EV -3.99%E -0.599%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 17:55
LeoVegas🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -4.71%E -0.713%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 18:00
Coolbet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 15:50
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 04:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 17:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 17:54
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -6.15%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 14:55
NordicBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.45%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.46I 15.48%NM 14.55%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -3.32%E -2.93%K -25.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 17:53
NetBet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.82%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.86%EV -9.04%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:00
Fanatics🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -9.76%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 18:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -9.76%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -9.76%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 17:55
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -10.48%E -1.69%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:55
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -12.65%E -2.09%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.32%E -2.93%K -25.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -13.37%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 17:30
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.37%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 17:55
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.37%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 17:59
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.37%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.37%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 17:33
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -4.17%E -3.72%K -34.76%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 15.82%EV -13.95%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 18:00
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19%EV -14.81%E -2.51%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 17:30
PlayUp🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -3.32%E -2.93%K -25.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -16.98%E -2.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -20.59%E -3.74%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:30
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -20.59%E -3.74%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -20.59%E -3.74%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 16:00
TAB🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -3.32%E -2.93%K -25.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -20.59%E -3.74%K -4.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 15:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91%0.7%2026-09-03 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-09-03 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-09-03 17:55
Matchbook◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-09-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-09-03 17:55
Novig◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.67%7.41I 13.50%NM 13.33%1.2%2026-09-03 17:41
Smarkets◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-03 17:50
ProphetX◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-03 17:50