Language:English
Taylor Fritz v Francisco Cerundolo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Taylor Fritz (Local)
Prediction 83.22%1.20fair odd
EV -0.133%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.667%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.98%83.22%83.09%84.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.141.131.2090.09%87.96%88.50%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Francisco Cerundolo (Visit)
Prediction 16.78%5.96fair odd
EV +4.86%
Edge +0.778%
Kelly +0.926%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%16.78%16.91%22.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.255.635.606.2523.53%17.76%17.86%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Taylor Fritz (Local): 83.22%; Francisco Cerundolo (Visit): 16.78%. For Francisco Cerundolo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.96. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +4.86%E +0.778%K +0.926%G +0.045% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.23%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 6.09I 16.42%NM 15.77%EV +2.18%E +0.357%K +0.428%G +0.009% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.23%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 6.09I 16.42%NM 15.77%EV +2.18%E +0.357%K +0.428%G +0.009% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.94%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 6.01I 16.64%NM 16.06%EV +0.835%E +0.139%K +0.167%G +0.001% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.667%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.667%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.667%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.667%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.667%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.667%E +0.111%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.50%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 5.82I 17.18%NM 16.50%EV -2.35%E -0.404%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -2.69%E -0.464%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.53%E -0.613%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -3.53%E -0.613%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.53%E -0.613%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -4.37%E -0.766%K -0.929%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.19%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 16.81%EV -5.37%E -0.953%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 08:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -6.04%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 08:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -6.04%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 08:38 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -7.62%E -6.87%K -69.30%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -6.04%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.91%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.09%EV -6.38%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.03%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.53I 18.08%NM 16.97%EV -7.22%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.03%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.53I 18.08%NM 16.97%EV -7.22%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 08:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 07:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 10:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 08:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 08:28 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.13%E -4.50%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 08:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -7.72%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 13:53 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.60%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.40%EV -8.39%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.29%E -3.73%K -28.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -9.40%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -5.96%E -5.27%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -11.08%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -14.43%E -2.83%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 08:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.40%EV -6.79%E -6.06%K -56.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -17.79%E -3.63%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 08:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -0.133%E -0.111%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -19.47%E -4.06%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 03:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -0.133%E -0.111%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -28.69%E -6.75%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 11:36 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.76% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 15.24% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 12:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.45% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.55% | 2.1% | 2026-09-04 12:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.53% | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 04:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.77% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.23% | 2.6% | 2026-09-04 10:35 |