Language:English
Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Prediction 59.04%1.69fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.837%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%59.18%58.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.621.631.6766.67%61.79%61.35%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 40.96%2.44fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +2.11%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%40.82%41.33%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.282.5246.51%43.51%43.86%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 59.04%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 40.96%. For Mariano Navone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -6.71%E -4.25%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV +3.21%E +1.27%K +2.11%G +0.068% | 3.0% | 2026-09-02 19:16 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -11.44%E -7.62%K -22.87%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +2.39%E +0.957%K +1.59%G +0.038% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 13:43 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -8.48%E -5.47%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV +0.345%E +0.141%K +0.238%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 19:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -5.53%E -3.46%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -1.29%E -0.537%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.12%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.70%E -0.710%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -1.70%E -0.710%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.71%E -4.25%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.52%E -1.06%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:36 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.71%E -4.25%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.52%E -1.06%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.52%E -1.06%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.52%E -1.06%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 18:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.52%E -1.06%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 18:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.52%E -1.06%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 18:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -3.75%E -1.60%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-02 21:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.75%E -1.60%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-02 22:26 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.60%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.60%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -4.16%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -7.30%E -4.65%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -4.16%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -8.48%E -5.47%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -4.16%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 22:26 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.17%E -1.93%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -4.98%E -2.15%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -7.89%E -5.06%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -4.98%E -2.15%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-02 22:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -5.80%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-02 21:36 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.80%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 22:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.80%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.80%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.80%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.53%E -3.46%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.80%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -6.21%E -2.71%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -6.21%E -2.71%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -6.62%E -2.90%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 22:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -5.53%E -3.46%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.34%EV -7.03%E -3.10%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 21:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -7.44%E -3.29%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -7.44%E -3.29%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -7.85%E -3.49%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.85%E -3.49%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 21:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.85%E -3.49%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.85%E -3.49%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.85%E -3.49%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.85%E -3.49%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 22:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -8.26%E -3.69%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -8.26%E -3.69%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 22:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -5.53%E -3.46%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -8.67%E -3.89%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.837%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -11.94%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.58%E -1.56%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -11.94%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26% | 0.1% | 2026-09-02 22:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.92% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 41.08% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 22:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-02 21:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.5% | 2026-09-02 22:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09% | 2.3% | 2026-09-02 22:10 |