The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
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Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Matteo Berrettini (Local)

Prediction 64.46%1.55fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -6.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.47%64.48%64.24%66.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.461.451.5070.92%68.66%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mariano Navone (Visit)

Prediction 35.54%2.81fair odd
EV -0.487%
Edge -0.174%
Kelly -0.271%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.89%35.52%35.76%36.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.652.652.8040.82%37.78%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 64.46%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 35.54%. For Mariano Navone (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.80, with an expected value of -0.487%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.31%E -2.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 04:25
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.31%E -2.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 01:09
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.31%E -2.21%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 00:05
Coolbet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.96%E -2.65%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -0.487%E -0.174%K -0.271%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-01 04:40
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.85%EV -4.60%E -3.11%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.15%EV -2.97%E -1.09%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 04:40
GTbets🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.60%E -3.11%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.11%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 00:25
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -4.60%E -3.11%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -6.53%E -2.48%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 00:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.24%E -3.57%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 00:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.24%E -3.57%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 04:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%EV -5.89%E -4.03%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 04:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.89%E -4.03%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 00:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.53%E -4.51%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 00:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.53%E -4.51%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 03:55
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.53%E -4.51%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 00:05
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.53%E -4.51%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.53%E -4.51%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 00:10
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.18%E -4.98%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 04:15
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.18%E -4.98%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 00:10
Fliff🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.18%E -4.98%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 03:55
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.18%E -4.98%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 00:25
ReBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.71%EV -7.82%E -5.47%K -18.19%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.29%EV -10.79%E -4.30%K -7.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -7.82%E -5.47%K -18.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-01 00:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -7.82%E -5.47%K -18.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-01 00:06
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -9.11%E -6.46%K -22.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.47%EV -9.11%E -6.46%K -22.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.53%EV -12.93%E -5.28%K -8.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-01 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%2.1%2026-09-01 03:25
Novig◎1.40I 71.43%NM 64.65%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.35%10.5%2026-09-01 05:05
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 63.54%2.44I 40.98%NM 36.46%12.4%2026-09-01 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 60.54%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.46%13.1%2026-09-01 04:50
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 60.54%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.46%13.1%2026-09-01 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 60.54%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.46%13.1%2026-09-01 04:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 60.54%2.24I 44.64%NM 39.46%13.1%2026-09-01 04:50
ProphetX◎1.49I 67.11%NM 58.95%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.05%13.8%2026-09-01 04:30