Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Marin Cilic v Andrey Rublev

Início: 2026-08-31 15:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Marin Cilic (Local)

Previsão 27.62%3.62odd justa
EV +0.811%
Vantagem +0.222%
Kelly +0.306%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.11%27.66%27.58%33.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.463.443.6535.71%28.93%29.07%27.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Andrey Rublev (Visitante)

Previsão 72.38%1.38odd justa
EV +1.33%
Vantagem +0.952%
Kelly +3.33%
Crescimento +0.044%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
66.67%72.34%72.42%73.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.261.311.311.4079.37%76.28%76.34%71.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Marin Cilic (Local): 27.62%; Andrey Rublev (Visitante): 72.38%. Para Andrey Rublev (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.38. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 1.40, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.33%.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -22.67%E -8.09%K -12.59%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV +1.33%E +0.952%K +3.33%G +0.044%7.1%2026-08-30 17:34
1xBet🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 27.16%EV -0.018%E -0.005%K -0.007%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.84%EV -2.29%E -1.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-30 17:50
GTbets🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 27.29%EV -1.40%E -0.392%K -0.544%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.71%EV -3.01%E -2.25%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 12:04
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -3.01%E -2.25%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 18:04
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -4.71%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.01%E -2.25%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -4.71%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.01%E -2.25%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 17:40
FanDuel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.01%E -2.25%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 11:00
Pinnacle🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 26.81%EV +0.258%E +0.071%K +0.098%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.19%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-29 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -1.95%E -0.550%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-30 10:55
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 17:35
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 17:40
SportsBet🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -7.20%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 15:20
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-28 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-28 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-28 12:05
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 00:01
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.24%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.73%E -2.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 10:55
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 10:55
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 17:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 15:35
Neds🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.33%EV -7.75%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.67%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 17:50
Betsson🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.63%EV -9.13%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.37%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 15:35
NordicBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.63%EV -9.13%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.37%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 15:35
MyBookie.ag🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -4.99%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -5.18%E -3.96%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 15:20
DraftKings🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -4.99%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -5.18%E -3.96%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 02:15
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.18%E -3.96%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 15:35
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.18%E -3.96%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 10:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.18%E -3.96%K -16.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 06:54
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 11:30
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.33%E -0.952%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 18:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.71%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:51
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:30
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 15:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 14:55
ReBet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -8.30%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 15:20
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 11:00
TAB🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.91%E -4.54%K -19.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 10:54
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:20
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Bally Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
betPARX🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
BetRivers🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +0.811%E +0.222%K +0.306%G +0.002%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.570%E -0.158%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 13:14
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 15:50
NetBet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:35
Caesars🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -1.95%E -0.550%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -8.80%E -6.98%K -33.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 13:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-08-29 19:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-08-30 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-08-30 14:50
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-08-30 17:30
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%2.0%2026-08-30 17:29
Matchbook◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%3.2%2026-08-30 17:45
ProphetX◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%3.7%2026-08-30 18:23
Novig◎3.51I 28.49%NM 22.17%1.00I 100.00%NM 77.83%28.5%2026-08-30 18:25