Language:English
Mariano Navone v Novak Djokovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 17.08%5.85fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +0.553%
Kelly +0.663%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 6.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.73%17.26%17.17%19.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.525.506.0520.83%18.11%18.18%16.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Prediction 82.92%1.21fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -6.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.40%82.74%82.83%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.141.1989.29%87.22%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 17.08%; Novak Djokovic (Visit): 82.92%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.85. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV +3.35%E +0.553%K +0.663%G +0.022% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.04I 16.56%NM 16.11%EV +3.18%E +0.526%K +0.630%G +0.020% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.89%EV -3.82%E -3.29%K -23.85%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-30 22:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.04I 16.56%NM 16.11%EV +3.18%E +0.526%K +0.630%G +0.020% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.89%EV -3.82%E -3.29%K -23.85%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +2.49%E +0.415%K +0.499%G +0.012% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-30 21:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +2.49%E +0.415%K +0.499%G +0.012% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +2.49%E +0.415%K +0.499%G +0.012% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.13%E -6.37%K -59.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV +0.785%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 20:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV +0.785%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -0.924%E -0.159%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -3.82%E -3.29%K -23.85%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.77I 17.33%NM 16.74%EV -1.44%E -0.249%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.26%EV -3.82%E -3.29%K -23.85%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -1.78%E -0.309%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%EV -2.63%E -0.462%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-30 22:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -2.63%E -0.462%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -2.63%E -0.462%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -2.63%E -0.462%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 20:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -2.63%E -0.462%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -7.13%E -6.37%K -59.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -4.34%E -0.775%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.04%EV -5.19%E -0.936%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.96%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 22:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-30 22:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 20:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 21:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-29 09:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.05%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.30%EV -6.90%E -1.27%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.70%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.30%EV -6.90%E -1.27%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.70%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.17%EV -6.90%E -1.27%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.83%EV -6.30%E -5.58%K -48.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -7.76%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -7.76%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -7.76%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -7.13%E -6.37%K -59.43%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.38I 18.59%NM 17.61%EV -8.10%E -1.51%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.39%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 22:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.31I 18.83%NM 18.31%EV -9.29%E -1.75%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.69%EV -1.33%E -1.12%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -9.46%E -1.79%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.47%E -4.80%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -10.32%E -1.97%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 22:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -10.32%E -1.97%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 22:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -10.32%E -1.97%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 20:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.40%EV -11.34%E -2.19%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 13:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 13:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 13:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 22:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.64%E -4.04%K -30.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 22:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -18.01%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -2.99%E -2.55%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 12:17 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 5.85I 17.09%NM 17.02% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.98% | 0.4% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Novig◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 0.7% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.15% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85% | 2.3% | 2026-08-30 22:50 |