Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Harry Wendelken
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 73.26%1.37fair odd
EV -0.368%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%73.17%73.34%75.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.301.301.3678.74%76.68%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Harry Wendelken (Visit)
Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%26.83%26.66%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.493.503.9032.26%28.67%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 73.26%; Harry Wendelken (Visit): 26.74%. For Harry Wendelken (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +4.29%E +1.10%K +1.48%G +0.063% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.34%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.66%EV +3.75%E +0.968%K +1.30%G +0.049% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 4.1% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.16%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.84%EV +0.546%E +0.145%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 16:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.06%E -0.286%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 17:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.80%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.20%EV -1.33%E -0.359%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-31 17:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.80%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.20%EV -1.33%E -0.359%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-31 17:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -2.40%E -0.656%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-31 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 17:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 17:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -4.54%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-31 17:41 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-31 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -5.60%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.33%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.67%EV -5.87%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.33%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.67%EV -5.87%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 17:41 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-31 15:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 10:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 10:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 10:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-29 08:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-31 01:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-31 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-31 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.80%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.20%EV -6.94%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 17:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -1.83%E -1.37%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-29 17:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-29 07:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 08:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 08:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-31 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 08:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 08:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:21 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 06:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -11.76%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 11:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.09%E -4.03%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -0.368%E -0.270%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 19:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44% | 2.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |