Idioma:Español
Luciano Darderi v Dalibor Svrcina
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Predicción 56.81%1.76momio equitativo
EV +0.556%
Ventaja +0.314%
Kelly +0.722%
Crecimiento +0.004%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.26%56.83%56.85%59.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.591.681.681.7762.89%59.69%59.52%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Dalibor Svrcina (Visitante)
Predicción 43.19%2.32momio equitativo
EV +2.79%
Ventaja +1.17%
Kelly +2.02%
Crecimiento +0.056%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.05%43.17%43.15%45.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.192.202.3847.62%45.66%45.45%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Luciano Darderi (Local): 56.81%; Dalibor Svrcina (Visitante): 43.19%. Para Dalibor Svrcina (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.32. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.38, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.79%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -9.67%E -6.08%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV +2.79%E +1.17%K +2.02%G +0.056% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -5.69%E -3.43%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -1.10%E -0.479%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 23:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -1.53%E -0.671%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-03 14:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 14:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 14:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 09:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.73%EV -6.83%E -4.16%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.27%EV -3.26%E -1.45%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 14:21 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.69%E -1.65%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 13:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 14:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 10:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 14:51 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 08:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 09:06 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 12:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 23:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 09:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 23:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 09:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 14:51 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 10:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-02 09:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 13:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 13:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 14:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 10:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 10:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 10:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 09:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 09:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.97%E -4.92%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 14:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-03 09:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.556%E +0.314%K +0.722%G +0.004% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 14:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 0.4% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58% | 2.4% | 2026-09-03 14:55 |