StandardmodellInterquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Luciano Darderi v Dalibor Svrcina

Spielbeginn: 2026-09-03 15:04 UTC

Endstand: Luciano Darderi 3–1 Dalibor Svrcina

Schlussquote — die anhand der letzten vor Spielbeginn erfassten Preise berechneten Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Erwartungswerte nach Ihrem ausgewählten Modell. Das Spiel hat begonnen; dies sind daher keine aktuellen Werte. Zuverlässigkeit der Wahrscheinlichkeitsprognosen jedes Modells anhand aller abgeschlossenen Spiele beurteilen →

Direkter Vergleich

65 Wettanbieter (21 in der Analyse )

Geschätzte Wahrscheinlichkeit jedes Ergebnisses nach dem Modell: Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Luciano Darderi (Heim)

Prognose 56.81%1.76faire Quote
EV +0.556%
Vorteil +0.314%
Kelly +0.722%
Wachstum +0.004%

bei einer Höchstquote von 1.77

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
54.26%56.83%56.85%59.95%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
1.591.681.681.7762.89%59.69%59.52%56.50%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Dalibor Svrcina (Auswärts)

Prognose 43.19%2.32faire Quote
EV +2.79%
Vorteil +1.17%
Kelly +2.02%
Wachstum +0.056%

bei einer Höchstquote von 2.38

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
40.05%43.17%43.15%45.74%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
2.102.192.202.3847.62%45.66%45.45%42.02%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Bei den letzten Quoten vor Spielbeginn schätzte Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste) für Direkter Vergleich: Luciano Darderi (Heim): 56.81%; Dalibor Svrcina (Auswärts): 43.19%. Für Dalibor Svrcina (Auswärts) entsprach diese Schätzung einer fairen Dezimalquote von 2.32. 1 Wettanbieter bot eine Schlussquote über diesem Wert an; die beste betrug 2.38 und entsprach einem positiven Erwartungswert von +2.79%.

Wettanbieterquoten (65 Wettanbieter)

Wir sind mit keinem Wettanbieter verbunden und erhalten keinerlei Ertrag aus Handlungen, die bei diesen Anbietern vorgenommen werden.

WettanbieterHeimAuswärts ▼MargeAktualisiert
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -9.67%E -6.08%K -16.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV +2.79%E +1.17%K +2.02%G +0.056%4.9%2026-09-03 14:55
GTbets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -5.69%E -3.43%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -1.10%E -0.479%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 23:50
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -1.53%E -0.671%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-03 14:45
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-03 14:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 14:49
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.73%EV -6.83%E -4.16%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.27%EV -3.26%E -1.45%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:21
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.69%E -1.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 14:55
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 10:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 10:20
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 14:51
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 08:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 09:06
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 13:20
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 13:00
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:59
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:50
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 23:50
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 10:15
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 09:24
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 23:54
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:50
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 09:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 14:30
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 10:15
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 09:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
BetUS🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 13:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 13:05
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 10:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 10:15
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 10:55
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 10:54
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:30
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.97%E -4.92%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 14:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 09:00
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.556%E +0.314%K +0.722%G +0.004%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 14:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 14:30
Marge = Marge (Wahrscheinlichkeitsüberschuss) · I = Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit · NM = Margenbereinigte Wahrscheinlichkeit · EV = Erwartungswert · E = Vorteil · K = Kelly-Kriterium · G = Wachstum des Wettkapitals

Aktualisiert gibt an, wann der jeweilige Wettanbieter seinen Preis zuletzt geändert hat. Eine ältere Zeit bedeutet also, dass sich die Quote lediglich nicht bewegt hat, nicht dass sie veraltet ist. Anbieter, die seit etwa 15 Minuten nicht mehr erfasst wurden, werden normalerweise ausgeschlossen; nur wenn die Datenquelle eines ganzen Marktes verstummt, erscheinen stattdessen die zuletzt erfassten Preise.

Wettbörsen (8)

WettanbieterHeimAuswärtsMarge ▲Aktualisiert
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-09-03 14:55
ProphetX◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-09-03 14:55
Matchbook◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-03 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-03 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-03 14:55
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-09-03 14:55
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-09-03 14:55
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%2.4%2026-09-03 14:55