Language:English
Jiri Lehecka v Pablo Carreno Busta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jiri Lehecka (Local)
Prediction 78.51%1.27fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -14.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.63%78.50%78.57%80.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2385.47%82.62%82.30%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit)
Prediction 21.49%4.65fair odd
EV +5.30%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.072%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%21.50%21.43%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.394.354.9025.00%22.79%22.99%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 78.51%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit): 21.49%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -7.36%E -6.24%K -40.88%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +5.30%E +1.08%K +1.36%G +0.072% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 13:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -6.57%E -5.52%K -34.60%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +4.23%E +0.872%K +1.10%G +0.046% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV +2.08%E +0.438%K +0.555%G +0.012% | 3.0% | 2026-08-30 12:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -1.14%E -0.249%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -1.14%E -0.249%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-30 14:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -7.36%E -6.24%K -40.88%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -1.14%E -0.249%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.76%EV -3.43%E -2.79%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 4.56I 21.93%NM 21.24%EV -2.00%E -0.439%K -0.563%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -2.22%E -0.487%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 13:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -2.22%E -0.487%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -2.43%E -0.536%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 13:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 14:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 12:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.14%E -6.96%K -47.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.29%E -0.732%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.77%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.23%EV -3.51%E -0.781%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.44%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.44%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.44%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.44%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.44%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.57%E -5.52%K -34.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -5.44%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 12:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 14:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 14:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -6.57%E -5.52%K -34.60%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.74%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.74%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.59%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 14:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -8.66%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -8.66%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 13:22 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -8.66%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.00%E -4.14%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -8.66%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -8.66%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 12:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 12:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 12:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 08:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.74%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 12:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -5.79%E -4.82%K -28.94%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -10.81%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.04%E -3.51%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-28 14:26 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 0.4% | 2026-08-30 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.66% | 5.13I 19.49%NM 19.34% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 14:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.93% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.07% | 1.7% | 2026-08-30 15:00 |