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Jiri Lehecka v Pablo Carreno Busta

2026-08-30 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jiri Lehecka (Local)

Prediction 75.72%1.32fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.34%75.55%75.73%77.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.261.261.3084.03%79.65%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit)

Prediction 24.28%4.12fair odd
EV +5.12%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%24.45%24.27%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.833.854.3329.85%26.08%25.97%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jiri Lehecka (Local): 75.72%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit): 24.28%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.33, producing a positive expected value of +5.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 77.32%EV -3.83%E -3.02%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.68%EV +5.12%E +1.18%K +1.54%G +0.079%1.8%2026-08-28 00:20
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.34%E -4.28%K -21.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.90%E -0.724%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 00:10
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.62%E -6.24%K -34.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.90%E -0.724%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 00:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -6.10%E -4.92%K -25.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 00:30
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -7.62%E -6.24%K -34.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 00:50
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.48%EV -3.07%E -2.40%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.52%EV -4.35%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-27 23:55
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.87%EV -5.34%E -4.28%K -21.38%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.13%EV -4.60%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-28 00:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.34%E -4.28%K -21.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.32%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 00:15
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:00
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:00
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:00
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.59%E -3.64%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 23:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.34%E -4.28%K -21.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 00:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -7.62%E -6.24%K -34.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 00:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.83%E -3.02%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.97%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 22:00
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.10%E -4.92%K -25.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -8.97%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 00:21
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.61%E -3.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.32%E -1.80%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -12.61%E -3.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 00:00
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -1.56%E -1.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -17.46%E -5.14%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.79%EV -9.89%E -8.31%K -52.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.21%EV -18.68%E -5.57%K -7.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-28 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%10.5%2026-08-28 00:50