Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jan Choinski v Botic van de Zandschulp

Início: 2026-09-02 16:38 UTC

Final: Jan Choinski 0–3 Botic van de Zandschulp

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jan Choinski (Local)

Previsão 24.36%4.11odd justa
EV +3.53%
Vantagem +0.830%
Kelly +1.09%
Crescimento +0.038%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.45%24.36%24.51%25.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.533.873.854.2528.33%25.82%25.97%23.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Botic van de Zandschulp (Visitante)

Previsão 75.64%1.32odd justa
EV -2.42%
Vantagem -1.88%
Kelly -8.36%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
74.16%75.64%75.49%77.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.221.251.251.2981.97%79.76%80.00%77.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Jan Choinski (Local): 24.36%; Botic van de Zandschulp (Visitante): 75.64%. Para Jan Choinski (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.11. 6 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.53%.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV +3.53%E +0.830%K +1.09%G +0.038%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -6.96%E -5.66%K -30.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-01 23:35
Pinnacle🎯4.21I 23.75%NM 23.03%EV +2.55%E +0.607%K +0.796%G +0.020%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.97%EV -4.69%E -3.72%K -18.05%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-02 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV +2.31%E +0.550%K +0.722%G +0.017%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 22:40
LowVig.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV +2.31%E +0.550%K +0.722%G +0.017%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 22:40
TAB🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +2.31%E +0.550%K +0.722%G +0.017%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.72%E -6.33%K -35.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 15:10
FanDuel🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV +1.09%E +0.263%K +0.347%G +0.004%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -6.21%E -5.00%K -25.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 04:35
BetAnything🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -0.125%E -0.031%K -0.040%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 23:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 13:20
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 14:30
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 14:30
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 14:30
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 14:31
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 04:45
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.21%E -5.00%K -25.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 13:34
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.21%E -5.00%K -25.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 14:35
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.72%E -6.33%K -35.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 04:30
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.56%E -0.640%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.72%E -6.33%K -35.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 23:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.69%E -3.72%K -18.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 07:15
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -6.21%E -5.00%K -25.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 16:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.96%E -5.66%K -30.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -3.18%E -2.48%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 16:30
MyBookie.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 14:35
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.72%E -6.33%K -35.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 14:35
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.72%E -6.33%K -35.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 14:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -6.22%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.22%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 15:05
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.22%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 00:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.22%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 10:35
DraftKings🎯3.81I 26.25%NM 25.00%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.00%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 16:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.43%E -1.96%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 09:15
Caesars🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.43%E -1.96%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 14:26
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.42%E -1.88%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 16:34
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Bally Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
BetRivers🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
Fanatics🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 07:45
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 06:15
betano_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 08:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.45%E -4.36%K -21.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 05:25
1xBet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -8.89%E -2.38%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -3.18%E -2.48%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 16:29
theScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -9.87%E -2.67%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.94%E -3.10%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 16:30
Fliff🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.87%E -2.67%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.72%E -6.33%K -35.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 16:30
NordicBet🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 25.56%EV -10.60%E -2.89%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.44%EV -4.69%E -3.72%K -18.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 16:35
Betsson🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 25.56%EV -10.60%E -2.89%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.44%EV -4.69%E -3.72%K -18.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -11.09%E -3.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -6.21%E -5.00%K -25.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 25.84%EV -14.01%E -3.97%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -6.96%E -5.66%K -30.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 16:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%0.3%2026-09-02 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%0.3%2026-09-02 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%0.5%2026-09-02 16:35
Matchbook◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%0.5%2026-09-02 16:35
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%0.7%2026-09-02 16:35
ProphetX◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%0.7%2026-09-02 16:35
Novig◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.69%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.31%1.3%2026-09-02 16:35
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%1.6%2026-09-02 16:35