Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jan-Lennard Struff v Francisco Cerundolo

2026-09-03 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jan-Lennard Struff (Local)

Predicción 37.89%2.64momio equitativo
EV -1.48%
Ventaja -0.569%
Kelly -0.924%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.95%37.87%37.97%39.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.492.502.6043.48%40.23%40.00%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Francisco Cerundolo (Visitante)

Predicción 62.11%1.61momio equitativo
EV -3.73%
Ventaja -2.41%
Kelly -6.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.26%62.13%62.03%63.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.461.521.531.5568.49%65.76%65.36%64.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jan-Lennard Struff (Local): 37.89%; Francisco Cerundolo (Visitante): 62.11%. Para Jan-Lennard Struff (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.64. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.60, con un valor esperado de -1.48%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.48%E -0.569%K -0.924%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.73%E -2.41%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 23:50
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.48%E -0.569%K -0.924%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 01:30
BetUS🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -1.86%E -0.717%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-02 01:00
DraftKings🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%EV -2.99%E -1.17%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 23:50
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.37%E -1.32%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.35%E -2.83%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 00:55
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.37%E -1.32%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.60%E -3.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 23:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.37%E -1.32%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 02:00
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -3.75%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.35%E -2.83%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 01:25
GTbets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -3.75%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.72%EV -4.89%E -1.95%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.28%EV -5.60%E -3.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 01:00
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.73%E -2.41%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 23:55
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 23:55
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 04:00
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Bally Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 01:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 02:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.98%E -3.25%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 02:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.60%E -3.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 01:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.60%E -3.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 23:55
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.27%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 01:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -5.65%E -2.27%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -5.60%E -3.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 01:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.40%E -2.59%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 01:30
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 23:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 01:00
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 02:00
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.06%E -3.77%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.73%E -2.41%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 01:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.06%E -3.77%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 04:50
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.06%E -3.77%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.84%E -4.56%K -13.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.44%EV -10.19%E -4.30%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.56%EV -8.08%E -5.46%K -16.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 23:50
ReBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.44%EV -10.19%E -4.30%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.56%EV -8.08%E -5.46%K -16.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 01:55
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -10.95%E -4.66%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.73%E -2.41%K -6.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -10.95%E -4.66%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -8.08%E -5.46%K -16.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -12.85%E -5.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.17%EV -9.32%E -6.39%K -20.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-02 01:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-09-02 04:41
Novig2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%3.0%2026-09-02 04:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%7.0%2026-09-02 04:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%7.0%2026-09-02 04:20
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%7.0%2026-09-02 04:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%7.0%2026-09-02 04:20
ProphetX2.66I 37.59%NM 34.80%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.20%8.0%2026-09-02 04:35
Smarkets2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.85%8.6%2026-09-02 04:20