The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Marton Fucsovics

2026-08-30 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Prediction 80.74%1.24fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -15.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.53%80.81%80.86%82.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.161.2088.50%85.86%86.21%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marton Fucsovics (Visit)

Prediction 19.26%5.19fair odd
EV +7.47%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.122%

assuming max odds 5.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.70%19.19%19.14%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.905.055.255.5825.64%19.80%19.05%17.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 80.74%; Marton Fucsovics (Visit): 19.26%. For Marton Fucsovics (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. 16 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.58, producing a positive expected value of +7.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 82.30%EV -3.11%E -2.59%K -15.56%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.70%EV +7.47%E +1.34%K +1.63%G +0.122%1.3%2026-08-28 00:15
GTbets🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.08%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.56%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.92%EV +3.24%E +0.604%K +0.743%G +0.024%4.1%2026-08-27 23:35
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:34
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:33
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%5.3%2026-08-27 23:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.12%E +0.213%K +0.263%G +0.003%6.0%2026-08-27 22:35
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.70%E -0.739%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-27 22:10
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.70%E -0.739%K -0.924%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-27 22:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.70%E -0.739%K -0.924%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-28 00:00
theScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.62%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-27 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.46%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.54%EV -6.39%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -6.59%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-28 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.56%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.59%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-27 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.51%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-27 23:45
LeoVegas🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -10.44%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-27 22:30
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.40%E -2.48%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 00:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.34%E -5.47%K -39.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.40%E -2.48%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 22:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.53%EV -8.76%E -7.76%K -67.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -24.88%E -6.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-27 22:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 78.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%12.9%2026-08-27 22:31