Language:English
Ben Shelton v Denis Shapovalov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ben Shelton (Local)
Prediction 76.29%1.31fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -8.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.30%76.32%76.19%78.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2881.97%80.17%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visit)
Prediction 23.71%4.22fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.067%
assuming max odds 4.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.77%23.68%23.81%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.973.954.4227.03%25.16%25.32%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ben Shelton (Local): 76.29%; Denis Shapovalov (Visit): 23.71%. For Denis Shapovalov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -6.16%E -5.01%K -26.79%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV +4.79%E +1.08%K +1.40%G +0.067% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -6.16%E -5.01%K -26.79%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV +4.79%E +1.08%K +1.40%G +0.067% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.91%EV -3.11%E -2.45%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 23.09%EV +0.290%E +0.069%K +0.090%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 12:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -0.421%E -0.100%K -0.132%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.16%E -5.01%K -26.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -0.421%E -0.100%K -0.132%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 00:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.93%E -5.68%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.421%E -0.100%K -0.132%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.93%E -5.68%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.421%E -0.100%K -0.132%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 21:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -3.11%E -2.45%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -2.79%E -0.681%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 12:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.87%E -3.07%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -2.79%E -0.681%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 08:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.79%E -0.681%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 03:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.79%E -0.681%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 11:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.79%E -0.681%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.93%E -5.68%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -2.79%E -0.681%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 08:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -3.87%E -3.07%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -3.98%E -0.982%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 08:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 10:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 20:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 03:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 02:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.16%E -5.01%K -26.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 08:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.93%E -5.68%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.16%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 10:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -3.11%E -2.45%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV -6.11%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 07:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -6.35%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.06%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.06%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.53%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 06:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.53%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.40%E -4.35%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.53%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.93%E -5.68%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.53%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 04:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -8.72%E -2.26%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -8.72%E -2.26%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 02:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.15%EV -3.87%E -3.07%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.85%EV -9.67%E -2.54%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.11%E -2.45%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -9.90%E -2.61%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 13:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.90%E -2.61%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 13:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.93%E -5.68%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.90%E -2.61%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-04 07:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.09%E -2.96%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.09%E -2.96%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 12:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.35%E -1.83%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -12.28%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.35%E -1.83%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -12.28%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.28%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.64%E -3.71%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.28%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.62% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 22.38% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |