Language:English
Alexei Popyrin v Alejandro Tabilo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexei Popyrin (Local)
Prediction 39.83%2.51fair odd
EV -0.431%
Edge -0.172%
Kelly -0.287%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%39.92%39.80%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.5044.44%41.79%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alejandro Tabilo (Visit)
Prediction 60.17%1.66fair odd
EV +0.488%
Edge +0.292%
Kelly +0.728%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%60.08%60.20%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.581.571.6766.23%63.46%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexei Popyrin (Local): 39.83%; Alejandro Tabilo (Visit): 60.17%. For Alejandro Tabilo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.488%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV +0.488%E +0.292%K +0.728%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 08:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -2.52%E -1.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-03 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -8.00%E -3.46%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -2.52%E -1.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.52%E -1.56%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -4.81%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.72%E -2.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-03 14:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.72%E -2.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 09:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.01%E -2.55%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.72%E -2.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 10:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.72%E -2.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 10:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.72%E -2.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 15:53 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.72%E -2.33%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.33%E -2.72%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 13:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -8.00%E -3.46%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -4.33%E -2.72%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 10:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.33%E -2.72%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 18:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.62%E -1.49%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 10:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 14:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 09:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 15:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.60%E -3.28%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.60%E -3.28%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -4.93%E -3.12%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 10:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 18:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 18:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.62%E -1.49%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 10:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 12:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 12:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 10:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 10:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 10:23 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 10:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 10:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 10:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 08:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -0.431%E -0.172%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.13%E -3.93%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.13%E -3.93%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.13%E -3.93%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 12:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.13%E -3.93%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.13%E -3.93%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 14:22 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.42%E -0.989%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.61%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 12:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.61%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 12:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.61%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -2.02%E -0.823%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -7.33%E -4.76%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 12:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -9.14%E -6.05%K -17.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 10:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 0.2% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 0.2% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 0.2% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 18:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-09-03 13:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 1.3% | 2026-09-03 18:36 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15% | 2.0% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |