Language:English
Alex Molcan v Benjamin Bonzi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Molcan (Local)
Prediction 34.50%2.90fair odd
EV +3.49%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.061%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%34.68%34.73%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.703.0040.00%37.11%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Benjamin Bonzi (Visit)
Prediction 65.50%1.53fair odd
EV +0.223%
Edge +0.145%
Kelly +0.420%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%65.32%65.27%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.461.5371.43%68.26%68.49%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Molcan (Local): 34.50%; Benjamin Bonzi (Visit): 65.50%. For Alex Molcan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +3.49%E +1.16%K +1.74%G +0.061% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.29%E -5.92%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV +1.07%E +0.365%K +0.555%G +0.006% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 21:57 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -0.309%E -0.107%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 22:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -0.654%E -0.227%K -0.348%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 21:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -0.654%E -0.227%K -0.348%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -1.34%E -0.470%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -1.34%E -0.470%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-01 22:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -2.03%E -0.716%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -2.03%E -0.716%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.41%EV -3.07%E -1.09%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -7.64%E -5.42%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.41%EV -3.07%E -1.09%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -7.64%E -5.42%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 22:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -3.76%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.45%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -4.79%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:16 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.54%EV -6.52%E -2.41%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.88%EV -7.90%E -2.96%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.12%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 11:42 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 11:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 0.2% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61% | 0.3% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21% | 1.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75% | 2.1% | 2026-09-01 22:00 |