Idioma:Español
Alex Molcan v Benjamin Bonzi
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Alex Molcan (Local)
Predicción 34.50%2.90momio equitativo
EV +3.49%
Ventaja +1.16%
Kelly +1.74%
Crecimiento +0.061%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.82%34.68%34.73%37.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.692.703.0040.00%37.11%37.04%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Benjamin Bonzi (Visitante)
Predicción 65.50%1.53momio equitativo
EV +0.223%
Ventaja +0.145%
Kelly +0.420%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.03%65.32%65.27%68.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.471.461.5371.43%68.26%68.49%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alex Molcan (Local): 34.50%; Benjamin Bonzi (Visitante): 65.50%. Para Alex Molcan (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.90. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.49%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +3.49%E +1.16%K +1.74%G +0.061% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.29%E -5.92%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV +1.07%E +0.365%K +0.555%G +0.006% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 21:57 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -0.309%E -0.107%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 22:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -0.654%E -0.227%K -0.348%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 21:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -0.654%E -0.227%K -0.348%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -1.34%E -0.470%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -1.34%E -0.470%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.20%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-01 22:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -2.03%E -0.716%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -2.03%E -0.716%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 12:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.41%EV -3.07%E -1.09%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -7.64%E -5.42%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.41%EV -3.07%E -1.09%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -7.64%E -5.42%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 22:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -3.76%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.45%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -4.79%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:16 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.54%EV -6.52%E -2.41%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 22:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.88%EV -7.90%E -2.96%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.12%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 22:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 11:42 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 11:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-01 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.04%E -4.72%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.223%E +0.145%K +0.420%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 0.2% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61% | 0.3% | 2026-09-01 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21% | 1.4% | 2026-09-01 22:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75% | 2.1% | 2026-09-01 22:00 |