L’École des cotes

Tommy Paul v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-19 16:35 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tommy Paul (Local)

Prévision 68.54%1.46cote équitable
EV -2.67%
Avantage -1.88%
Kelly -6.36%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.06%68.53%68.49%72.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.301.381.381.4276.92%72.66%72.46%70.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.46%3.18cote équitable
EV +5.39%
Avantage +1.61%
Kelly +2.29%
Croissance +0.124%

avec la cote maximale 3.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.96%31.47%31.51%32.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.853.013.003.3535.09%33.23%33.33%29.85%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Bet Right1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -10.90%E -8.38%K -36.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV +5.39%E +1.61%K +2.29%G +0.124%6.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Pinnacle1.39I 71.94%NM 70.17%EV -4.73%E -3.40%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.83%EV +2.87%E +0.878%K +1.26%G +0.036%2.5%2026-06-19 16:31
BetUS1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -6.10%E -4.45%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -0.904%E -0.287%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-19 16:31
Coolbet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.10%E -4.45%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.48%E -0.799%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 16:29
Unibet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.10%E -4.45%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.48%E -0.799%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 16:29
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.48%E -0.799%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:29
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.48%E -0.799%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
BetAnything1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.73%E -3.40%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.05%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-19 16:30
Betclic (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.10%E -4.45%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -4.05%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:29
Betr (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.05%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 16:31
FanDuel1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -8.15%E -6.09%K -23.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -4.05%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 16:31
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -4.68%E -1.54%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-19 16:31
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -4.68%E -1.54%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-19 16:31
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 68.64%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.36%EV -4.99%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 16:31
Winamax (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.67%E -1.88%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-19 16:30
1xBet1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-19 16:28
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:31
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Hard Rock Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 16:30
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 16:31
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 16:30
Caesars1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 16:28
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.47%E -5.53%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 16:31
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.47%E -5.53%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 16:30
Coral1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.47%E -5.53%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.47%E -5.53%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 16:31
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.84%E -6.65%K -26.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-19 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.84%E -6.65%K -26.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-19 16:30
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.20%E -2.44%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 16:28
Dabble (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.67%E -1.88%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.77%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-19 16:30
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.77%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-19 16:31
Winamax (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.77%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-19 16:30
theScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.77%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-19 16:28
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.77%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 16:29
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.78%E -4.99%K -18.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.77%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-19 16:29
Betsson1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -10.34%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-19 16:28
NordicBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -10.34%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-19 16:28
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-06-19 16:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-06-19 16:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-06-19 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-06-19 16:30
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59%2.2%2026-06-19 16:30
Novig1.40I 71.43%NM 69.76%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.24%2.4%2026-06-19 16:30