Language:English
Ignacio Buse v Marcos Giron
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Prediction 30.41%3.29fair odd
EV +0.346%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.150%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%30.54%30.34%32.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.123.113.3035.46%32.07%32.15%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marcos Giron (Visit)
Prediction 69.59%1.44fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -8.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.46%69.46%69.66%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.351.351.3978.74%74.20%74.07%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 30.41%; Marcos Giron (Visit): 69.59%. For Ignacio Buse (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.346%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.74%EV -0.871%E -0.267%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.26%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -2.39%E -0.745%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -2.39%E -0.745%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.04%EV -3.00%E -0.940%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.96%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.77%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.29%EV -4.82%E -1.54%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.71%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -5.13%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.94%EV -11.62%E -9.15%K -43.03%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.26%E -2.38%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -7.56%E -2.49%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -3.27%E -2.35%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 10:28 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -7.56%E -2.49%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -3.27%E -2.35%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.82%E -4.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -12.43%E -4.31%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -13.34%E -4.68%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.54%EV -14.25%E -5.05%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.46%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 1.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.91% | 2.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |