Idioma:Español
Ignacio Buse v Marcos Giron
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Predicción 30.41%3.29momio equitativo
EV +0.346%
Ventaja +0.105%
Kelly +0.150%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.73%30.54%30.34%32.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.823.123.113.3035.46%32.07%32.15%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Marcos Giron (Visitante)
Predicción 69.59%1.44momio equitativo
EV -3.27%
Ventaja -2.35%
Kelly -8.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.39
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.46%69.46%69.66%71.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.271.351.351.3978.74%74.20%74.07%71.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ignacio Buse (Local): 30.41%; Marcos Giron (Visitante): 69.59%. Para Ignacio Buse (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.29. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.346%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.346%E +0.105%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.74%EV -0.871%E -0.267%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.26%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.17%E -0.361%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -2.39%E -0.745%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -2.39%E -0.745%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.70%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.04%EV -3.00%E -0.940%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.96%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.77%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.29%EV -4.82%E -1.54%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.71%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -5.13%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -5.74%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.94%EV -11.62%E -9.15%K -43.03%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.26%E -2.38%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -7.56%E -2.49%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -3.27%E -2.35%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 10:28 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -7.56%E -2.49%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -3.27%E -2.35%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.05%E -4.48%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 10:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.44%E -5.60%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-16 10:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.78%E -2.93%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.82%E -4.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.96%E -2.87%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -12.43%E -4.31%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -13.34%E -4.68%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -6.75%E -5.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.54%EV -14.25%E -5.05%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.46%EV -5.35%E -3.94%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-16 10:39 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 1.7% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.91% | 2.9% | 2026-06-16 10:40 |