Language:English
Arthur Fery v Toby Samuel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fery (Local)
Prediction 80.61%1.24fair odd
EV +38.65%
Edge +22.47%
Kelly +53.68%
Growth +20.75%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.05%78.81%80.81%83.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.241.161.7291.74%80.92%86.21%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toby Samuel (Visit)
Prediction 19.39%5.16fair odd
EV +6.65%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.098%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%21.19%19.19%45.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.004.485.005.5050.00%22.31%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fery (Local): 80.61%; Toby Samuel (Visit): 19.39%. For Arthur Fery (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.24. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV +38.65%E +22.47%K +53.68%G +20.75% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -58.89%E -27.78%K -52.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 12:06 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +37.04%E +21.79%K +52.91%G +19.60% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -56.95%E -25.66%K -46.68%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-16 10:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +37.04%E +21.79%K +52.91%G +19.60% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -56.95%E -25.66%K -46.68%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-16 10:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV +37.04%E +21.79%K +52.91%G +19.60% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -61.22%E -30.61%K -61.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-16 10:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV +35.42%E +21.09%K +52.10%G +18.45% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -57.34%E -26.06%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-16 12:06 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +34.62%E +20.73%K +51.67%G +17.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -57.34%E -26.06%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 12:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV +33.01%E +20.00%K +50.78%G +16.76% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -57.34%E -26.06%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-16 12:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV +13.66%E +9.69%K +33.32%G +4.55% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -39.70%E -12.76%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.27%E -2.72%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -7.90%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -3.27%E -2.72%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -22.44%E -5.61%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.88%E -4.14%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-16 12:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.88%E -4.14%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -14.68%E -3.34%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -4.88%E -4.14%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -18.56%E -4.42%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -6.93%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -7.90%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.74%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.74%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%EV -5.69%E -4.86%K -33.45%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -17.59%E -4.14%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-16 12:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.34%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.66%EV +4.90%E +0.906%K +1.11%G +0.054% | 4.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.80%E +0.342%K +0.423%G +0.008% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.11%E -0.218%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.11%E -0.218%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.11%E -0.218%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.11%E -0.218%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.49%E -5.60%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -11.78%E -2.59%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.80%E +0.342%K +0.423%G +0.008% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +0.828%E +0.159%K +0.197%G +0.002% | 6.2% | 2026-06-16 12:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -4.02%E -0.812%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.30%E -6.35%K -48.66%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -8.87%E -1.89%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +4.71%E +0.871%K +1.07%G +0.050% | 6.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +4.71%E +0.871%K +1.07%G +0.050% | 6.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +4.71%E +0.871%K +1.07%G +0.050% | 6.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -6.93%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -8.10%E -7.11%K -57.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -22.44%E -5.61%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-06-16 12:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -8.91%E -7.89%K -68.54%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV +2.77%E +0.522%K +0.644%G +0.018% | 7.4% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.72%E -8.68%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +6.65%E +1.21%K +1.48%G +0.098% | 7.5% | 2026-06-16 12:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.40%EV -9.72%E -8.68%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -4.99%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.41%EV -10.52%E -9.48%K -95.66%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV +0.828%E +0.159%K +0.197%G +0.002% | 9.3% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.13%EV -10.52%E -9.48%K -95.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -1.11%E -0.218%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.10%EV -12.14%E -11.13%K -134.83%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -3.05%E -0.610%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 0.8% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 0.8% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.66% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34% | 2.9% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61% | 3.2% | 2026-06-16 12:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.29% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 20.71% | 8.7% | 2026-06-16 12:21 |