Language:English
Matteo Berrettini v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Prediction 42.02%2.38fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.529%
Kelly -0.921%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.20%42.15%42.02%45.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.222.202.3548.31%45.03%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 57.98%1.72fair odd
EV +0.298%
Edge +0.172%
Kelly +0.409%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.47%57.85%57.98%59.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.651.7363.69%60.88%60.79%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 42.02%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 57.98%. For Joao Fonseca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.298%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -13.01%E -6.29%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV +0.298%E +0.172%K +0.409%G +0.001% | 6.1% | 2026-04-09 09:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%EV -4.19%E -1.84%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%EV -1.44%E -0.848%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-09 08:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -1.44%E -0.848%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -5.87%E -2.62%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-09 09:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -5.87%E -2.62%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-09 09:08 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -7.13%E -3.22%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-09 09:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-09 08:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 09:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 15:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 08:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -5.03%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -3.76%E -2.27%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-09 08:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.29%E -2.82%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.76%E -2.27%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-09 08:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-09 09:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-09 09:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 09:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.92%E -3.00%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.81%E -4.06%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -4.92%E -3.00%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.81%E -4.06%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -4.92%E -3.00%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-09 09:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -3.76%E -1.64%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 09:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -9.23%E -4.27%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -2.08%E -0.894%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-09 09:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -2.92%E -1.27%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 08:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 06:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 09:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 08:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 08:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 08:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -6.71%E -3.02%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-09 09:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 09:07 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 09:08 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 09:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 09:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-09 08:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.24%E -0.529%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -8.40%E -5.32%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -8.40%E -5.32%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-09 09:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 0.7% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97% | 0.9% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.4% | 2026-04-09 09:10 |