A Escola das Odds

Matteo Berrettini v Joao Fonseca

Início: 2026-04-09 09:15 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Matteo Berrettini (Local)

Previsão 42.02%2.38odd justa
EV -1.24%
Vantagem -0.529%
Kelly -0.921%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.20%42.15%42.02%45.53%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.072.222.202.3548.31%45.03%45.45%42.55%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Joao Fonseca (Visitante)

Previsão 57.98%1.72odd justa
EV +0.298%
Vantagem +0.172%
Kelly +0.409%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.73

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.47%57.85%57.98%59.80%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.571.641.651.7363.69%60.88%60.79%57.80%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
BetUS2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -13.01%E -6.29%K -12.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV +0.298%E +0.172%K +0.409%G +0.001%6.1%2026-04-09 09:04
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%EV -4.19%E -1.84%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%EV -1.44%E -0.848%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-09 08:35
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -1.44%E -0.848%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:05
LowVig.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -5.87%E -2.62%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 09:08
BetOnline.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -5.87%E -2.62%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 09:08
1xBet2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -7.13%E -3.22%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -2.02%E -1.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 09:00
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-09 08:29
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 09:04
Caesars2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 15:55
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Bally Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Hard Rock Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.18%E -1.90%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 08:34
FanDuel2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -5.03%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -3.76%E -2.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 08:34
SportsBet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.29%E -2.82%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.76%E -2.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 08:34
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 09:09
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 09:00
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 09:10
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 09:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.34%E -2.63%K -6.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 09:10
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.92%E -3.00%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 09:10
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.81%E -4.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -4.92%E -3.00%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 09:10
Virgin Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.81%E -4.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -4.92%E -3.00%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 09:10
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 09:04
Unibet (UK)2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -3.76%E -1.64%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 09:10
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 09:08
PMU (FR)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -9.23%E -4.27%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -5.50%E -3.37%K -8.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 09:10
GTbets2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -2.08%E -0.894%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 09:04
ReBet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -2.92%E -1.27%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 08:05
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 09:10
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 06:14
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 09:10
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 09:09
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 08:19
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 08:14
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.65%E -4.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.08%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 08:14
NetBet (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -6.71%E -3.02%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 09:04
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 09:10
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 09:10
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.66%E -4.14%K -10.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 09:10
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.34%E -1.45%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 09:07
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 09:08
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 09:09
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 09:09
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.24%E -4.52%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 08:19
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.24%E -0.529%K -0.921%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -8.40%E -5.32%K -14.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 09:10
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -8.40%E -5.32%K -14.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-09 09:09
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-09 09:10
Fliff2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.55%E -3.43%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-09 09:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%0.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%0.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%0.3%2026-04-09 09:10
ProphetX2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%0.3%2026-04-09 09:10
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%0.7%2026-04-09 09:10
Novig2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97%0.9%2026-04-09 09:10
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%2.4%2026-04-09 09:10