Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Gabriel Diallo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 89.89%1.11fair odd
EV +7.87%
Edge +6.56%
Kelly +39.34%
Growth +3.09%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.30%89.31%89.84%92.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.061.051.2099.01%94.73%95.24%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gabriel Diallo (Visit)
Prediction 10.11%9.89fair odd
EV +33.46%
Edge +2.54%
Kelly +2.74%
Growth +0.918%
assuming max odds 13.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.37%10.69%10.16%21.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.339.349.5013.2023.09%10.71%10.53%7.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 89.89%; Gabriel Diallo (Visit): 10.11%. For Gabriel Diallo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.89. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV +7.87%E +6.56%K +39.34%G +3.09% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -56.22%E -12.98%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV +3.37%E +2.93%K +22.48%G +0.758% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -44.39%E -8.07%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-06 14:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.31%EV -2.02%E -1.85%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 10.16I 9.84%NM 9.69%EV +2.73%E +0.268%K +0.298%G +0.008% | 1.6% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -2.02%E -1.85%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -34.28%E -5.27%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.82%E -3.57%K -54.55%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.82%E -3.57%K -54.55%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -14.06%E -1.65%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.95%E -0.415%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.95%E -0.415%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -6.47%E -0.700%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -11.53%E -1.32%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -11.53%E -1.32%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.72%E -4.45%K -78.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -29.22%E -4.17%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 14:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.63%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 13.20I 7.58%NM 7.37%EV +33.46%E +2.54%K +2.74%G +0.918% | 2.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +11.22%E +1.02%K +1.12%G +0.126% | 4.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +11.22%E +1.02%K +1.12%G +0.126% | 4.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -9.00%E -1.00%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.62%E -5.35%K -112.33%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -19.11%E -2.39%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-06 14:47 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +21.33%E +1.78%K +1.94%G +0.414% | 4.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +21.33%E +1.78%K +1.94%G +0.414% | 4.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -3.95%E -0.415%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.52%E -6.26%K -162.88%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -14.06%E -1.65%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.41%E -7.20%K -247.14%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.41%E -7.20%K -247.14%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +1.11%E +0.111%K +0.123%G +0.001% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -7.41%E -7.20%K -247.14%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -14.06%E -1.65%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.87%EV -9.21%E -9.12%K -921.19%G +0.000% | 10.05I 9.95%NM 9.13%EV +1.61%E +0.161%K +0.178%G +0.003% | 9.0% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 88.79%EV -9.21%E -9.12%K -921.19%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -19.11%E -2.39%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 0.6% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.60% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40% | 0.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.19% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81% | 1.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.18% | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.82% | 1.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.83% | 13.33I 7.50%NM 7.17% | 4.6% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |