Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Matteo Berrettini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 68.99%1.45fair odd
EV -0.661%
Edge -0.459%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%68.94%68.99%71.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.381.4475.76%72.98%72.73%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Berrettini (Visit)
Prediction 31.01%3.22fair odd
EV +2.97%
Edge +0.894%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 3.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.60%31.06%31.01%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.053.3236.36%32.97%32.79%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 68.99%; Matteo Berrettini (Visit): 31.01%. For Matteo Berrettini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.97%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -8.25%E -6.20%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV +2.97%E +0.894%K +1.28%G +0.038% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.798%E +0.246%K +0.355%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.798%E +0.246%K +0.355%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -4.11%E -2.96%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -0.752%E -0.235%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-08 09:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -4.11%E -2.96%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -0.752%E -0.235%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.752%E -0.235%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-08 08:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -1.06%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-08 08:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -2.61%E -0.832%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -2.61%E -0.832%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-08 09:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-08 08:58 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.49%E -4.01%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.94%E -6.77%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.49%E -4.01%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.49%E -4.01%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.49%E -4.01%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.42%E -2.44%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-08 09:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.11%E -2.96%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 09:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -8.25%E -6.20%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.86%EV -7.58%E -2.54%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-08 09:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.35%EV -0.661%E -0.459%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.65%EV -7.89%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.25%E -6.20%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.42%E -2.44%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-08 08:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.80%E -3.48%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-08 08:58 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.18%E -4.54%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-08 08:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.87%E -5.09%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.42%E -2.44%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.71%E -5.35%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.42%E -2.44%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.71%E -5.35%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.42%E -2.44%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.71%E -5.35%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43% | 2.8% | 2026-04-08 09:10 |