Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Sebastian Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 93.44%1.07fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -70.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.30%93.20%93.63%95.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.031.021.04100.00%97.52%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visit)
Prediction 6.56%15.24fair odd
EV +31.27%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.515%
assuming max odds 20.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.85%6.80%6.37%9.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5013.3713.0020.0010.53%7.48%7.69%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 93.44%; Sebastian Baez (Visit): 6.56%. For Sebastian Baez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.24. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +31.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +31.27%E +1.56%K +1.65%G +0.515% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +31.27%E +1.56%K +1.65%G +0.515% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 11:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +24.71%E +1.30%K +1.37%G +0.339% | 3.3% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.64%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 18.20I 5.49%NM 5.36%EV +19.45%E +1.07%K +1.13%G +0.220% | 2.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +18.14%E +1.01%K +1.07%G +0.194% | 3.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +11.58%E +0.681%K +0.724%G +0.084% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 09:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +11.58%E +0.681%K +0.724%G +0.084% | 3.0% | 2026-04-06 19:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +11.58%E +0.681%K +0.724%G +0.084% | 3.9% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.10%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 16.59I 6.03%NM 5.90%EV +8.89%E +0.536%K +0.570%G +0.051% | 2.2% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.02%E +0.313%K +0.334%G +0.017% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.02%E +0.313%K +0.334%G +0.017% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 11:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.55%E -0.103%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.55%E -0.103%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.55%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 14.80I 6.76%NM 6.45%EV -2.86%E -0.193%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.55%EV -6.56%E -6.56%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.45%EV -4.83%E -0.333%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 10:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -8.11%E -0.579%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -8.11%E -0.579%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.05%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.66I 7.32%NM 6.95%EV -10.34%E -0.757%K -0.817%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.94%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 13.30I 7.52%NM 7.06%EV -12.71%E -0.955%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 11:36 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 06:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 10:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 17:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 17:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 19:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -17.56%E -1.40%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 05:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -17.56%E -1.40%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 05:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -17.96%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-06 16:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -17.96%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -17.96%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 19:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-07 10:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 05:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -31.08%E -2.96%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -31.08%E -2.96%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -34.37%E -3.44%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -34.37%E -3.44%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -37.65%E -3.96%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-07 11:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 94.29% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.71% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 93.34% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.66% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.76% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 0.5% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.76% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 0.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.63% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.37% | 0.6% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.62% | 18.48I 5.41%NM 5.38% | 0.6% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.42% | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.58% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |