La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Carlos Alcaraz v Sebastian Baez
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Predicción 93.44%1.07momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -2.72%
Kelly -70.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
90.30%93.20%93.63%95.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.001.031.021.04100.00%97.52%98.04%96.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Sebastian Baez (Visitante)
Predicción 6.56%15.24momio equitativo
EV +31.27%
Ventaja +1.56%
Kelly +1.65%
Crecimiento +0.515%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 20.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
4.85%6.80%6.37%9.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
9.5013.3713.0020.0010.53%7.48%7.69%5.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +31.27%E +1.56%K +1.65%G +0.515% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +31.27%E +1.56%K +1.65%G +0.515% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 11:39 |
| SportsBet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +24.71%E +1.30%K +1.37%G +0.339% | 3.3% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| DraftKings | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.64%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 18.20I 5.49%NM 5.36%EV +19.45%E +1.07%K +1.13%G +0.220% | 2.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +18.14%E +1.01%K +1.07%G +0.194% | 3.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Coolbet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +11.58%E +0.681%K +0.724%G +0.084% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 09:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +11.58%E +0.681%K +0.724%G +0.084% | 3.0% | 2026-04-06 19:44 |
| FanDuel | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +11.58%E +0.681%K +0.724%G +0.084% | 3.9% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.10%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 16.59I 6.03%NM 5.90%EV +8.89%E +0.536%K +0.570%G +0.051% | 2.2% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.02%E +0.313%K +0.334%G +0.017% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.02%E +0.313%K +0.334%G +0.017% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 11:34 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.55%E -0.103%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Betway | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.55%E -0.103%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| 1xBet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.55%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 14.80I 6.76%NM 6.45%EV -2.86%E -0.193%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.55%EV -6.56%E -6.56%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.45%EV -4.83%E -0.333%K -0.358%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 10:10 |
| Bet Right | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -8.11%E -0.579%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:05 |
| ReBet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -8.11%E -0.579%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:10 |
| GTbets | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.05%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.66I 7.32%NM 6.95%EV -10.34%E -0.757%K -0.817%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Fliff | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.94%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 13.30I 7.52%NM 7.06%EV -12.71%E -0.955%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 11:36 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Coral | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Bovada | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 06:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Betsson | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| theScore Bet | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 10:10 |
| William Hill | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 17:34 |
| 888sport | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 17:40 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 19:40 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.68%E -1.13%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -17.56%E -1.40%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 05:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV -17.56%E -1.40%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 05:20 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -17.96%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-06 16:25 |
| Neds | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -17.96%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -17.96%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Casumo | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Unibet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| betPARX | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 11:39 |
| Caesars | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 19:34 |
| TAB | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.63%E -5.57%K -562.91%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -21.24%E -1.77%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-07 10:20 |
| Bally Bet | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -2.83%E -2.72%K -70.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 05:10 |
| BetMGM | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 16:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Grosvenor | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.76%E -3.65%K -125.34%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.80%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -31.08%E -2.96%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -31.08%E -2.96%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Fanatics | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -34.37%E -3.44%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Everygame | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -34.37%E -3.44%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -37.65%E -3.96%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-07 11:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.06I 94.34%NM 94.29% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.71% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| ProphetX | 1.07I 93.46%NM 93.34% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.66% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.76% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 0.5% | 2026-04-07 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.76% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 0.5% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.63% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.37% | 0.6% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Smarkets | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.62% | 18.48I 5.41%NM 5.38% | 0.6% | 2026-04-07 11:40 |
| Novig | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.42% | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.58% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 11:35 |