Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 49.31%2.03fair odd
EV -0.398%
Edge -0.197%
Kelly -0.390%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.52%49.22%49.21%50.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.921.932.0254.05%51.99%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jannik Sinner (Visit)
Prediction 50.69%1.97fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.855%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.60%50.78%50.79%52.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.871.9455.56%53.34%53.48%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 49.31%; Jannik Sinner (Visit): 50.69%. For Carlos Alcaraz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -0.398%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%EV -0.398%E -0.197%K -0.390%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%EV -4.19%E -2.22%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%EV -0.891%E -0.443%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%EV -7.74%E -4.25%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.72%EV -1.38%E -0.692%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.28%EV -3.69%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-12 11:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -1.38%E -0.692%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-12 11:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.48%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%EV -2.67%E -1.39%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -4.70%E -2.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 12:17 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.71%E -3.07%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.71%E -3.07%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.36%E -1.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.71%E -3.07%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 11:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.87%EV -3.85%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.13%EV -1.66%E -0.855%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-12 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -3.85%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -3.69%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-12 08:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 07:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.85%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.85%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 11:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.85%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 12:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.70%E -2.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 09:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 06:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 10:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.87%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.13%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-12 06:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.69%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 22:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.70%E -2.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -5.33%E -2.78%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 23:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 11:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 06:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 04:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 20:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 19:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 19:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 20:01 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -3.69%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 07:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -3.69%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 07:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.82%E -3.05%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 05:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -4.70%E -2.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -6.73%E -3.66%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 06:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -6.73%E -3.66%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 06:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 11:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -3.69%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 12:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 23:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 07:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.78%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 01:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -7.79%E -4.17%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 11:38 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.78%E -4.75%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.78%E -4.75%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.22%E -3.36%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 0.4% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 0.4% | 2026-04-12 12:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 0.6% | 2026-04-12 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-12 12:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-12 12:01 |
| Novig◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.49% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.51% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40% | 1.9% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |