Language:English
Alexei Popyrin v Casper Ruud
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexei Popyrin (Local)
Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV +2.95%
Edge +0.767%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%27.19%26.93%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.563.543.8533.33%28.10%28.25%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Casper Ruud (Visit)
Prediction 73.26%1.37fair odd
EV +1.10%
Edge +0.795%
Kelly +2.89%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%72.81%73.07%75.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.281.291.3883.33%78.03%77.82%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexei Popyrin (Local): 26.74%; Casper Ruud (Visit): 73.26%. For Alexei Popyrin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.95%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -19.78%E -6.59%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV +1.10%E +0.795%K +2.89%G +0.032% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -19.78%E -6.59%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -0.368%E -0.271%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.63%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.37%EV -1.83%E -1.37%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -19.78%E -6.59%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -2.57%E -1.93%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-07 12:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 12:53 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -14.43%E -4.51%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -3.30%E -2.50%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -5.60%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 12:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.03%E -3.08%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.87%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 19:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 12:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 12:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.75%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 12:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -14.43%E -4.51%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.76%E -3.66%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 12:53 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +1.62%E +0.425%K +0.577%G +0.009% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-07 05:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +1.62%E +0.425%K +0.577%G +0.009% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-07 05:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.280%E +0.075%K +0.102%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.01%EV -1.86%E -0.507%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.99%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 12:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV +1.62%E +0.425%K +0.577%G +0.009% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.06%E -0.286%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 03:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 03:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV +2.15%E +0.563%K +0.763%G +0.016% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 11:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +0.280%E +0.075%K +0.102%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -2.39%E -0.656%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -2.39%E -0.656%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.96%E -5.48%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.95%E +0.767%K +1.04%G +0.031% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 12:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -7.69%E -6.11%K -29.59%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +0.280%E +0.075%K +0.102%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 12:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.06%E -0.286%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.06%E -0.286%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.06%E -0.286%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-07 05:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.41%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -2.39%E -0.656%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -9.16%E -7.39%K -38.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -2.39%E -0.656%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -9.89%E -8.04%K -43.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.74%EV -12.09%E -10.07%K -60.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95% | 1.1% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 1.7% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 1.7% | 2026-04-07 12:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63% | 8.1% | 2026-04-07 12:53 |