Language:English
Raphael Collignon v Flavio Cobolli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Raphael Collignon (Local)
Prediction 45.13%2.22fair odd
EV +7.41%
Edge +3.11%
Kelly +5.37%
Growth +0.398%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%44.67%45.53%49.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.082.082.3851.81%48.18%48.08%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Flavio Cobolli (Visit)
Prediction 54.87%1.82fair odd
EV +2.60%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +2.99%
Growth +0.078%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%55.33%54.47%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.731.751.8765.36%57.83%57.14%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Raphael Collignon (Local): 45.13%; Flavio Cobolli (Visit): 54.87%. For Raphael Collignon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +7.41%E +3.11%K +5.37%G +0.398% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -16.05%E -10.49%K -30.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 00:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV +0.643%E +0.288%K +0.523%G +0.003% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -10.02%E -6.11%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.711%E -0.323%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -0.711%E -0.323%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.47%E -5.74%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -0.711%E -0.323%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.27%E -4.30%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 00:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -4.77%E -2.26%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -1.24%E -0.687%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 00:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.37%E -5.01%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -5.22%E -2.49%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -11.11%E -6.86%K -17.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -5.68%E -2.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -0.688%E -0.380%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 00:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -5.68%E -2.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -2.33%E -1.31%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 00:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -5.68%E -2.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -2.33%E -1.31%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 00:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV +0.958%E +0.521%K +1.14%G +0.011% | 2.4% | 2026-03-21 00:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.13%E -2.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.03%E -3.41%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.03%E -3.41%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.08%E -2.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.24%E -0.687%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 00:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.63%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.63%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.63%E -3.27%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.48%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.82%E -4.66%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -7.93%E -3.89%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -2.88%E -1.63%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 00:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -7.93%E -3.89%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:46 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -8.83%E -4.37%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -1.24%E -0.687%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -8.83%E -4.37%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -1.24%E -0.687%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.83%E -4.37%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.83%E -4.37%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.72%E -3.95%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -9.29%E -4.62%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -0.688%E -0.380%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.24%E -0.687%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -2.33%E -1.31%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 00:43 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.88%E -1.63%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 00:47 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.88%E -1.63%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 00:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -9.74%E -4.87%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.64%E -5.37%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -8.92%E -5.37%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.99%E -6.15%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.24%E -0.687%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.99%E -6.15%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -3.98%E -2.27%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -12.90%E -6.68%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV +2.60%E +1.39%K +2.99%G +0.078% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |