Language:English
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local)
Prediction 5.78%17.31fair odd
EV +235.08%
Edge +4.05%
Kelly +4.12%
Growth +9.70%
assuming max odds 58.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.69%13.64%5.61%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.8510.705.1058.0054.05%9.35%19.61%1.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 94.22%1.06fair odd
EV +83.73%
Edge +42.94%
Kelly +88.14%
Growth +73.80%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%86.36%94.39%98.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.351.151.95100.00%74.06%86.96%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local): 5.78%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 94.22%. For Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.31. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 58.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +235.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -89.20%E -47.70%K -102.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +83.73%E +42.94%K +88.14%G +73.80% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -89.20%E -47.70%K -102.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +83.73%E +42.94%K +88.14%G +73.80% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -88.97%E -46.58%K -97.76%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV +81.85%E +42.41%K +88.01%G +72.04% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -88.97%E -46.58%K -97.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +79.97%E +41.87%K +87.87%G +70.27% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 14:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -89.20%E -47.70%K -102.52%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV +79.02%E +41.59%K +87.80%G +69.39% | 6.1% | 2026-03-19 14:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -88.91%E -46.31%K -96.64%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV +78.08%E +41.31%K +87.73%G +68.50% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -88.97%E -46.58%K -97.76%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV +78.08%E +41.31%K +87.73%G +68.50% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 14:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -88.85%E -46.04%K -95.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV +77.14%E +41.03%K +87.66%G +67.62% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -88.73%E -45.50%K -93.40%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +76.20%E +40.75%K +87.58%G +66.73% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 16:06 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -88.85%E -46.04%K -95.54%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV +76.20%E +40.75%K +87.58%G +66.73% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 14:06 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -89.20%E -47.70%K -102.52%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +76.20%E +40.75%K +87.58%G +66.73% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -89.20%E -47.70%K -102.52%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +76.20%E +40.75%K +87.58%G +66.73% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -89.31%E -48.28%K -105.07%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV +76.20%E +40.75%K +87.58%G +66.73% | 7.5% | 2026-03-19 14:07 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -88.73%E -45.50%K -93.40%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV +75.25%E +40.46%K +87.50%G +65.85% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 14:18 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -88.73%E -45.50%K -93.40%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +74.31%E +40.17%K +87.43%G +64.97% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -89.31%E -48.28%K -105.07%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +74.31%E +40.17%K +87.43%G +64.97% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -88.68%E -45.24%K -92.37%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV +72.43%E +39.58%K +87.26%G +63.20% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -88.91%E -46.31%K -96.64%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV +71.49%E +39.28%K +87.18%G +62.32% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV -89.14%E -47.41%K -101.29%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV +71.49%E +39.28%K +87.18%G +62.32% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 13:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -75.74%E -18.03%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV +13.07%E +10.89%K +65.34%G +8.54% | 7.1% | 2026-03-19 15:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -71.11%E -14.22%K -17.78%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV +10.24%E +8.75%K +60.24%G +6.17% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -71.11%E -14.22%K -17.78%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV +10.24%E +8.75%K +60.24%G +6.17% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -71.11%E -14.22%K -17.78%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV +10.24%E +8.75%K +60.24%G +6.17% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -72.56%E -15.28%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV +10.24%E +8.75%K +60.24%G +6.17% | 6.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -72.56%E -15.28%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV +9.30%E +8.02%K +58.11%G +5.40% | 7.3% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -68.80%E -12.74%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV +8.36%E +7.27%K +55.71%G +4.66% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -68.80%E -12.74%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV +8.36%E +7.27%K +55.71%G +4.66% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -68.80%E -12.74%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV +8.36%E +7.27%K +55.71%G +4.66% | 5.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -70.54%E -13.83%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV +8.36%E +7.27%K +55.71%G +4.66% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -73.42%E -15.96%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV +8.36%E +7.27%K +55.71%G +4.66% | 8.7% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -70.54%E -13.83%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV +7.41%E +6.50%K +52.96%G +3.93% | 7.3% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -71.11%E -14.22%K -17.78%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV +6.47%E +5.73%K +49.78%G +3.22% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -59.56%E -8.51%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV +3.65%E +3.31%K +36.45%G +1.33% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -59.56%E -8.51%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV +3.65%E +3.31%K +36.45%G +1.33% | 5.2% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -61.00%E -9.04%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV +2.70%E +2.48%K +30.03%G +0.812% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 15:46 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.32%EV -60.14%E -8.72%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.68%EV -0.124%E -0.117%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-19 15:47 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 21.82I 4.58%NM 4.55%EV +26.06%E +1.19%K +1.25%G +0.326% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.45%EV -2.01%E -1.93%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 0.7% | 2026-03-19 15:56 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -36.45%E -3.31%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.89%E -3.82%K -194.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-19 15:48 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +136.87%E +3.34%K +3.42%G +4.68% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 1.4% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +50.21%E +1.93%K +2.01%G +1.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +50.21%E +1.93%K +2.01%G +1.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +21.32%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.227% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-19 15:48 |
| 888sport🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -1.79%E -0.105%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -1.79%E -0.105%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -1.79%E -0.105%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -13.34%E -0.889%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 15:48 |
| Betsson🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -22.01%E -1.63%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -22.01%E -1.63%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 15:48 |
| Caesars🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -24.90%E -1.92%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.84%E -4.79%K -483.50%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 58.00I 1.72%NM 1.69%EV +235.08%E +4.05%K +4.12%G +9.70% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.31%EV -5.78%E -5.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +96.43%E +2.84%K +2.92%G +2.82% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.78%E -5.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +96.43%E +2.84%K +2.92%G +2.82% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.78%E -5.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +96.43%E +2.84%K +2.92%G +2.82% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.78%E -5.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +50.21%E +1.93%K +2.01%G +1.01% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.78%E -5.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +21.32%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.227% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.78%E -5.78%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.33% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.67% | 0.5% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.33% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.67% | 0.5% | 2026-03-19 15:51 |
| ProphetX◎ | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09% | 1.0% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 1.0% | 2026-03-19 15:51 |
| Smarkets◎ | 28.99I 3.45%NM 3.40% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.60% | 1.5% | 2026-03-19 15:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.73% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.27% | 1.8% | 2026-03-19 15:49 |
| Novig◎ | 23.81I 4.20%NM 4.03% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.97% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 15:51 |