Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Martin Landaluce
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 58.70%1.70fair odd
EV +3.90%
Edge +2.20%
Kelly +5.06%
Growth +0.197%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%59.72%59.31%71.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.581.581.77100.00%63.26%63.29%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Martin Landaluce (Visit)
Prediction 41.30%2.42fair odd
EV +34.23%
Edge +10.53%
Kelly +15.21%
Growth +5.21%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%40.28%40.69%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.002.352.233.25100.00%42.61%44.94%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 58.70%; Martin Landaluce (Visit): 41.30%. For Martin Landaluce (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -24.28%E -18.82%K -83.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV +34.23%E +10.53%K +15.21%G +5.21% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.07%EV -20.76%E -15.38%K -59.30%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.93%EV +30.51%E +9.66%K +14.13%G +4.31% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -20.76%E -15.38%K -59.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +28.03%E +9.04%K +13.35%G +3.74% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -20.17%E -14.83%K -56.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +23.90%E +7.97%K +11.95%G +2.86% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +15.64%E +5.59%K +8.69%G +1.36% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +15.64%E +5.59%K +8.69%G +1.36% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +15.64%E +5.59%K +8.69%G +1.36% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +15.64%E +5.59%K +8.69%G +1.36% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +15.64%E +5.59%K +8.69%G +1.36% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV +13.58%E +4.94%K +7.76%G +1.05% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +11.51%E +4.26%K +6.77%G +0.780% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +11.51%E +4.26%K +6.77%G +0.780% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -16.06%E -11.23%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +11.51%E +4.26%K +6.77%G +0.780% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -17.23%E -12.22%K -42.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV +11.51%E +4.26%K +6.77%G +0.780% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -11.95%E -7.97%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +3.25%E +1.30%K +2.17%G +0.071% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -11.95%E -7.97%K -23.90%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +1.19%E +0.485%K +0.819%G +0.010% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.02%E -5.82%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -0.878%E -0.366%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -10.19%E -6.66%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -0.878%E -0.366%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -13.13%E -8.87%K -27.34%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -0.878%E -0.366%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.19%E -6.66%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -1.70%E -0.716%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.19%E -6.66%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -1.70%E -0.716%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.67%E -4.19%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 01:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.84%E -5.00%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -9.02%E -5.82%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -2.94%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%EV -7.84%E -5.00%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%EV -3.77%E -1.62%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.08%E -3.80%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.01%E -2.18%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 01:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -10.19%E -6.66%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -7.07%E -3.14%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.14%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 01:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.49%E -3.41%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.14%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -7.84%E -5.00%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.14%E -4.15%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-21 01:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96%EV +3.90%E +2.20%K +5.06%G +0.197% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04%EV -10.79%E -5.00%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -0.212%E -0.125%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -11.20%E -5.21%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 01:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -0.212%E -0.125%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -11.20%E -5.21%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -1.97%E -1.18%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -11.20%E -5.21%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 01:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV +2.14%E +1.23%K +2.89%G +0.062% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -12.44%E -5.87%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV +0.962%E +0.559%K +1.34%G +0.013% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -12.44%E -5.87%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -1.39%E -0.825%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -12.44%E -5.87%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +3.90%E +2.20%K +5.06%G +0.197% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +3.90%E +2.20%K +5.06%G +0.197% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +3.90%E +2.20%K +5.06%G +0.197% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +3.90%E +2.20%K +5.06%G +0.197% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 01:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV +2.14%E +1.23%K +2.89%G +0.062% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +1.55%E +0.895%K +2.12%G +0.033% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +1.55%E +0.895%K +2.12%G +0.033% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +0.962%E +0.559%K +1.34%G +0.013% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 01:47 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +0.962%E +0.559%K +1.34%G +0.013% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -13.27%E -6.32%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV +2.72%E +1.56%K +3.63%G +0.099% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -13.68%E -6.55%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV +2.72%E +1.56%K +3.63%G +0.099% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -13.68%E -6.55%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV +2.72%E +1.56%K +3.63%G +0.099% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -13.68%E -6.55%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV +1.55%E +0.895%K +2.12%G +0.033% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -15.33%E -7.48%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -0.212%E -0.125%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -15.33%E -7.48%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +3.90%E +2.20%K +5.06%G +0.197% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -17.40%E -8.70%K -17.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -0.212%E -0.125%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -17.40%E -8.70%K -17.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -41.30%E -41.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -58.70%E -58.70%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 100.0% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15% | 1.3% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71% | 2.4% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 01:55 |