Language:English
Arthur Cazaux v Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Cazaux (Local)
Prediction 61.06%1.64fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.15%61.18%61.05%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.531.6066.67%64.71%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)
Prediction 38.94%2.57fair odd
EV -0.709%
Edge -0.278%
Kelly -0.458%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.82%38.95%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.462.5542.55%40.69%40.57%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Cazaux (Local): 61.06%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 38.94%. For Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.709%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.30%E -1.44%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.43%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.91%E -1.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 22:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -2.91%E -1.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -3.82%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -2.91%E -1.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -3.82%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.91%E -1.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.13%E -2.63%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.13%E -2.63%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -0.709%E -0.278%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -4.21%E -1.71%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.77%E -2.38%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.74%E -3.04%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.35%E -3.45%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -4.21%E -1.71%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -5.35%E -3.45%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.85%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.35%E -3.45%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.35%E -3.45%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.35%E -3.45%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.96%E -3.87%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.96%E -3.87%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.33%E -3.08%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.57%E -4.30%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -7.19%E -4.73%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-20 22:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.41%E -5.60%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12% | 2.7% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22% | 2.8% | 2026-03-20 23:05 |