La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Alex Michelsen v Mattia Bellucci
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Predicción 68.97%1.45momio equitativo
EV -0.689%
Ventaja -0.479%
Kelly -1.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.63%68.69%69.20%70.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.391.401.4475.19%71.97%71.43%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Mattia Bellucci (Visitante)
Predicción 31.03%3.22momio equitativo
EV +0.861%
Ventaja +0.265%
Kelly +0.383%
Crecimiento +0.003%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.35%31.31%30.80%34.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.992.953.2536.36%33.49%33.90%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.21%E -4.56%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.861%E +0.265%K +0.383%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| SportsBet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +0.861%E +0.265%K +0.383%G +0.003% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Bovada | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.21%E -4.56%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.691%E -0.216%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -0.691%E -0.216%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.28%E -6.22%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -0.691%E -0.216%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.28%E -6.22%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -0.691%E -0.216%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| 1xBet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -6.21%E -4.56%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -1.00%E -0.314%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.37%EV -3.45%E -2.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.63%EV -1.62%E -0.512%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| Betsson | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.70%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.24%E -0.712%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| NordicBet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.70%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.24%E -0.712%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -3.48%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -3.48%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| DraftKings | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.79%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| BetUS | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.79%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 00:44 |
| theScore Bet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.21%E -4.56%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.79%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.28%E -6.22%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.79%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Bet Right | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.90%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Betway | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.90%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.52%E -4.03%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.90%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-20 01:04 |
| Fanatics | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.28%E -6.22%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.90%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Fliff | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.28%E -6.22%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.90%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -2.07%E -1.46%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| BetRivers | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Casumo | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| TABtouch | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Unibet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Bally Bet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| betPARX | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -8.45%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -9.38%E -3.21%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-20 00:48 |
| PlayUp | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.45%E -2.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.00%E -3.45%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| TAB | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.00%E -3.45%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Bet Victor | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.21%E -4.56%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.00%E -3.45%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-20 00:45 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -0.689%E -0.479%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -10.62%E -3.69%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -11.55%E -4.05%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -11.55%E -4.05%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
| William Hill | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -0.689%E -0.479%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| 888sport | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -0.689%E -0.479%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -0.689%E -0.479%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -0.689%E -0.479%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Caesars | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.07%E -1.46%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.45%E -2.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-20 00:49 |
| Coral | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.45%E -2.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.66%E -5.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-20 00:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 0.3% | 2026-03-20 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 01:00 |
| Matchbook | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.2% | 2026-03-20 01:05 |
| Novig | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.49% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.51% | 2.1% | 2026-03-20 01:04 |
| Smarkets | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.36% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64% | 2.2% | 2026-03-20 01:05 |