Language:English
Vilius Gaubas v Sebastian Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vilius Gaubas (Local)
Prediction 30.89%3.24fair odd
EV +0.384%
Edge +0.118%
Kelly +0.171%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%30.88%30.72%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.053.2534.48%32.81%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visit)
Prediction 69.11%1.45fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -8.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%69.12%69.28%70.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.381.4075.76%72.84%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vilius Gaubas (Local): 30.89%; Sebastian Baez (Visit): 69.11%. For Vilius Gaubas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.384%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV +0.384%E +0.118%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -0.233%E -0.072%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -3.93%E -2.83%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 02:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV -1.78%E -0.559%K -0.816%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.70%E -0.859%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 13:11 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -3.94%E -1.27%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -3.93%E -2.83%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 12:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 13:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.77%E -6.65%K -27.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -3.93%E -2.83%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.79%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -6.41%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -6.41%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%EV -7.03%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.25%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 12:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 01:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 12:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 06:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.70%E -4.96%K -19.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.08%E -6.08%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 13:03 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.32%E -3.88%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 10:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 06:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 13:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 14:36 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.24%E -2.32%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 14:36 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.62%E -3.35%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.01%E -4.42%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 12:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23% | 0.3% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.93% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.07% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 13:10 |