Language:English
Roberto Bautista Agut v Thiago Agustin Tirante
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)
Prediction 36.09%2.77fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.378%
Kelly +0.587%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.01%36.27%35.47%39.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.612.632.8042.02%38.30%38.02%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit)
Prediction 63.91%1.56fair odd
EV -0.942%
Edge -0.608%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.87%63.73%64.53%66.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.471.451.5572.46%68.08%68.97%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roberto Bautista Agut (Local): 36.09%; Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit): 63.91%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV +1.06%E +0.378%K +0.587%G +0.006% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -11.81%E -8.56%K -31.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 35.13%EV -0.026%E -0.009%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.87%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -0.026%E -0.009%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 13:37 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.747%E -0.272%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.747%E -0.272%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.747%E -0.272%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.83%E -0.673%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.78%E -3.21%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.83%E -0.673%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.78%E -3.21%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 13:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.25%E -6.51%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.25%E -6.51%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -9.89%E -7.01%K -24.12%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -8.61%E -6.02%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -9.25%E -6.51%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -0.942%E -0.608%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 13:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.56%EV -10.53%E -7.52%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -8.33%E -3.28%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 13:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -8.33%E -3.28%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -1.58%E -1.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 13:37 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 13:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.57%E -4.72%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.57%E -4.72%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -11.57%E -4.72%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.66%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -5.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -5.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -5.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 0.2% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 0.7% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 0.7% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.45% | 1.2% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51% | 2.3% | 2026-04-22 13:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.95% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.05% | 3.4% | 2026-04-22 13:38 |