L’École des cotes

Roberto Bautista Agut v Thiago Agustin Tirante

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-22 13:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)

Prévision 36.09%2.77cote équitable
EV +1.06%
Avantage +0.378%
Kelly +0.587%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.01%36.27%35.47%39.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.382.612.632.8042.02%38.30%38.02%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visiteur)

Prévision 63.91%1.56cote équitable
EV -0.942%
Avantage -0.608%
Kelly -1.71%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.87%63.73%64.53%66.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.381.471.451.5572.46%68.08%68.97%64.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV +1.06%E +0.378%K +0.587%G +0.006%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -11.81%E -8.56%K -31.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 13:38
Pinnacle2.77I 36.10%NM 35.13%EV -0.026%E -0.009%K -0.014%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.87%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-22 13:40
1xBet2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -0.026%E -0.009%K -0.014%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-22 13:37
Winamax (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.747%E -0.272%K -0.427%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 13:38
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.747%E -0.272%K -0.427%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 13:40
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.747%E -0.272%K -0.427%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 13:40
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.83%E -0.673%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.78%E -3.21%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 13:38
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.83%E -0.673%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.78%E -3.21%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-22 13:40
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 13:39
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:38
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:39
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
NordicBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:39
Winamax (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:38
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
betPARX2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
Hard Rock Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.55%E -0.945%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 13:40
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 13:25
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 13:40
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 13:39
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.25%E -6.51%K -22.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 13:39
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.25%E -6.51%K -22.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 13:39
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -4.36%E -1.64%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -9.89%E -7.01%K -24.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 13:40
Virgin Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 13:40
LiveScore Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 13:39
Grosvenor2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 13:40
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 13:40
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 13:38
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 13:39
LeoVegas2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -8.61%E -6.02%K -20.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -9.25%E -6.51%K -22.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-22 13:40
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -0.942%E -0.608%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-22 13:39
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 13:34
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.56%EV -10.53%E -7.52%K -26.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-22 13:40
GTbets2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -8.33%E -3.28%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 13:25
BetMGM2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -8.33%E -3.28%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 13:39
FanDuel2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -1.58%E -1.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-22 13:40
SportsBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 13:39
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 13:37
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 13:39
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 13:40
Betsson2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 13:39
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 13:35
Caesars2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 13:39
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.42%E -3.66%K -11.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 13:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.57%E -4.72%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 13:38
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.57%E -4.72%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 13:38
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -11.57%E -4.72%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.66%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 13:38
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -5.92%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 13:39
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -5.92%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 13:39
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -5.92%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 13:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%0.2%2026-04-22 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%0.7%2026-04-22 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%0.7%2026-04-22 13:40
Matchbook2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.45%1.2%2026-04-22 13:40
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51%2.3%2026-04-22 13:40
Novig2.69I 37.17%NM 35.95%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.05%3.4%2026-04-22 13:38