Language:English
Mariano Navone v Alexander Zverev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 22.55%4.43fair odd
EV +1.70%
Edge +0.377%
Kelly +0.484%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 4.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.77%22.61%22.58%24.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.164.204.5127.03%24.04%23.81%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Zverev (Visit)
Prediction 77.45%1.29fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -12.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.15%77.39%77.42%79.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.221.221.2586.96%82.04%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 22.55%; Alexander Zverev (Visit): 77.45%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV +1.70%E +0.377%K +0.484%G +0.008% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -6.29%E -5.19%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 00:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV +1.70%E +0.377%K +0.484%G +0.008% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -6.29%E -5.19%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 00:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV +1.47%E +0.327%K +0.421%G +0.006% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.96%E -3.19%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 18:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +1.47%E +0.327%K +0.421%G +0.006% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 19:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +1.47%E +0.327%K +0.421%G +0.006% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -8.61%E -7.30%K -47.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -1.91%E -0.439%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -8.61%E -7.30%K -47.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.36%E -0.545%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.06%E -5.88%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.04%E -0.706%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.04%E -0.706%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.04%E -0.706%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -7.06%E -5.88%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 16:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -3.04%E -0.706%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.61%E -7.30%K -47.83%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.56%EV -3.26%E -0.760%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.44%EV -3.19%E -2.55%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 22:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.16%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.96%E -3.19%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.16%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.16%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 22:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.81%EV -4.62%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.19%EV -3.19%E -2.55%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-23 22:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.74%E -3.85%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 15:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 18:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.06%E -5.88%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 00:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -10.16%E -8.76%K -63.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-23 15:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -6.42%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.13%EV -7.10%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.87%EV -3.96%E -3.19%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.29%E -5.19%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 18:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.29%E -5.19%K -29.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.06%E -5.88%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 18:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.06%E -5.88%K -35.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 03:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.67%EV -10.93%E -9.51%K -72.88%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-23 20:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -12.06%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.96%E -3.19%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.06%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.06%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -13.18%E -3.42%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -3.19%E -2.55%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -15.44%E -4.12%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -3.96%E -3.19%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -15.44%E -4.12%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -3.96%E -3.19%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.44%E -4.12%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.51%E -4.52%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -16.57%E -4.48%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.82%EV -8.61%E -7.30%K -47.83%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.99% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.01% | 2.9% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64% | 4.4% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64% | 4.4% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64% | 4.4% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50% | 8.4% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |