Language:English
Jan-Lennard Struff v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jan-Lennard Struff (Local)
Prediction 54.41%1.84fair odd
EV +3.39%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +3.76%
Growth +0.128%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.19%54.47%57.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.771.9061.73%56.31%56.50%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 45.59%2.19fair odd
EV -0.624%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.97%45.81%45.53%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.032.002.1852.63%49.26%50.00%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jan-Lennard Struff (Local): 54.41%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 45.59%. For Jan-Lennard Struff (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +3.39%E +1.78%K +3.76%G +0.128% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -13.39%E -7.05%K -14.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 17:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -11.11%E -5.70%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +0.667%E +0.361%K +0.785%G +0.005% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -0.421%E -0.230%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -11.11%E -5.70%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -0.421%E -0.230%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -12.02%E -6.23%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -0.965%E -0.530%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -12.48%E -6.50%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -0.965%E -0.530%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -12.48%E -6.50%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -1.51%E -0.834%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -4.73%E -2.26%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.05%E -1.14%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.05%E -1.14%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.05%E -1.14%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.05%E -1.14%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.05%E -1.14%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.05%E -1.14%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -2.60%E -1.45%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.14%E -1.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -6.09%E -2.96%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-24 00:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.69%E -2.08%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.69%E -2.08%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.69%E -2.08%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.55%E -3.20%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 03:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.69%E -2.08%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 21:03 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.69%E -2.08%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-24 01:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -4.23%E -2.40%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -1.99%E -0.926%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-24 00:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.23%E -2.40%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -6.55%E -3.20%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.77%E -2.73%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.55%E -3.20%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 23:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.77%E -2.73%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.55%E -3.20%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 23:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.32%E -3.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -3.81%E -1.81%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 00:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.32%E -3.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -3.81%E -1.81%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 00:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.32%E -3.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 00:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.32%E -3.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.55%E -3.20%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.86%E -3.39%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -3.81%E -1.81%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.86%E -3.39%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.86%E -3.39%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.86%E -3.39%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.86%E -3.39%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.86%E -3.39%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -6.41%E -3.72%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -2.90%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 00:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.41%E -3.72%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 00:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.41%E -3.72%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 00:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.95%E -4.06%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -1.99%E -0.926%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.95%E -4.06%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 00:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -7.50%E -4.41%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -0.624%E -0.286%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -7.50%E -4.41%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -1.08%E -0.498%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 00:41 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.50%E -4.41%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.55%E -3.20%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.50%E -4.41%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.83%E -4.41%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -8.04%E -4.76%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -1.08%E -0.498%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 01:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.13%E -5.47%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.27%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 01:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -11.85%E -7.31%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -1.99%E -0.926%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 23:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18% | 2.5% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55% | 2.6% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |