Language:English
Damir Dzumhur v Mattia Bellucci
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Damir Dzumhur (Local)
Prediction 46.65%2.14fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.783%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.53%46.47%46.95%47.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.032.022.1852.36%49.29%49.50%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mattia Bellucci (Visit)
Prediction 53.35%1.87fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.08%53.53%53.05%55.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.781.8458.82%56.35%56.18%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Damir Dzumhur (Local): 46.65%; Mattia Bellucci (Visit): 53.35%. For Damir Dzumhur (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV +1.71%E +0.783%K +1.45%G +0.025% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -6.65%E -3.80%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +0.774%E +0.358%K +0.667%G +0.005% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -7.18%E -4.13%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +0.774%E +0.358%K +0.667%G +0.005% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -7.18%E -4.13%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.52%EV -0.625%E -0.294%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.48%EV -5.05%E -2.83%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -8.25%E -4.79%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.03%E -0.964%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.31%E -5.48%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.89%E -1.89%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.11%E -3.47%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.36%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.65%E -3.80%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.36%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.65%E -3.80%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.36%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.18%E -4.13%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.91%E -1.60%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.76%E -2.85%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -6.22%E -3.10%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -3.45%E -1.90%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -1.84%E -1.00%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.38%E -1.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 10:48 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.38%E -1.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.38%E -1.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.38%E -1.30%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.91%E -1.60%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 10:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.98%E -2.21%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.58%E -3.15%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.71%E -4.46%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.25%E -4.79%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -6.69%E -3.35%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.78%E -5.13%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.62%E -3.85%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.58%E -3.15%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.62%E -3.85%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.58%E -3.15%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.62%E -3.85%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.58%E -3.15%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -8.56%E -4.37%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -6.11%E -3.47%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 10:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.02%E -4.63%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.65%E -3.80%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.28%EV -9.49%E -4.89%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.72%EV -7.18%E -4.13%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-22 10:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -10.89%E -5.70%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -7.18%E -4.13%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.38% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.62% | 3.4% | 2026-04-22 11:00 |